利益平衡与角色转变:日美同盟视角下的日本对俄外交

Interest Balance and Role Transformation:Japan's Diplomacy towards Russia from the Perspective of the Japan-US Alliance

针对2014年乌克兰危机和2022年俄乌冲突,在美俄对立延长线上的日本采取了不同的政策。本文基于利益平衡理论构建起解释两次危机中日本对俄采取不同政策的理论框架。2014年乌克兰危机爆发后,日美在对俄政策上出现利益分歧,日本出于自身利益,以“平衡者”角色最低限度地配合美国对俄实施制裁,有限地改善日俄关系。2022年俄乌冲突爆发后,日美在对俄政策上出现利益重合,日本不仅以“追随者”角色跟随美国对俄实施制裁,还以“利用者”角色借此谋求自我松绑、猛增防卫费,并以“代理者”角色充当“北约亚太化”的急先锋,向正常化国家和军事大国迈进。未来,日本处理日俄关系的最大变数是美国。在政治和社会思潮保守右倾化不断发展的大背景下,日本对俄外交已重回传统的保守路线,两国关系短期内难以转圜。

In response to the Crimea crisis in 2014 and the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022,Japan adopted a different policy.Based on the theory of balance of interests,this paper constructs a theoretical framework to explain Japan's different policies towards Russia during the two crises.In 2014,the interests of Japan and the United States diverged in their policy towards Russia.For its own interests,Japan,in the role of“balancer”,cooperated with the US to impose sanctions on Russia to a limited extent and improved Japan-Russia relations.In 2022,there was an overlap of interests between Japan and the United States in their policies towards Russia.Japan not only followed the United States in imposing sanctions on Russia,but also took advantage of this opportunity to seek self-relaxation and a surge in military spending,serving as a vanguard of“NATO in Asia Pacific”and moving towards a normalized country and a military power.In the future,the biggest variable in Japan-Russia relations is the US.Under the background of the conservative and rightward trend of political and social thought,Japan's diplomacy with Russia has returned to the traditional conservative line,and it is difficult to improve the relations between the two countries in the short term.