大国博弈下提升我国产业链韧性的内在逻辑与实现路径

Enhancing the Resilience of China’s Industrial Chain in the Context of Major-Power Rivalry:Intrinsic Logic and Implementation Pathways

党的二十大报告明确提出“着力提升产业链供应链韧性和安全水平”。当前,大国博弈趋于激化,地缘政治因素成为推动全球产业链重构的“加速器”,严重威胁我国产业链的安全稳定。本文旨在深入分析大国博弈下我国产业安全与发展的历史逻辑与现实逻辑,为提升我国产业链韧性提出建议。具体而言,结合大国博弈特征和阶段性发展目标,分四个阶段讨论党在百年历程中的工业体系建设,挖掘独立自主与产业链韧性提升的历史逻辑;围绕当前在产业链领域的关键中间产品、核心技术和长期科技竞争力、合作伙伴关系以及治理四个维度的大国博弈特点,阐释提升产业链韧性在满足现代化产业体系建设要求、应对短期风险与提升长期治理话语权三个方面所体现出的现实逻辑。最后,从加强产业链风险管理与预警,以科技创新突破关键核心技术,拓展产业链合作“朋友圈”,积极参与全球产业链治理等层面提出我国产业链韧性提升的实现路径。

The report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC)proposes to“focus on enhancing the resilience and security level of industrial and supply chains”.At present,the intensification of major-power rivalry,compounded by geopolitical factors,is an accelerator of the restructuring of global industrial chains,posing a severe threat to the security and stability of China’s industrial chains.This paper analyzes the historical and present logic underpinning China’s industrial security and development,providing recommendations for enhancing the resilience of China’s industrial chain.By combining the characteristics of major-power rivalry and phased development goals,we discuss the four stages in the construction of the industrial system over the Party’s centennial journey,revealing the historical logic of independence and self-reliance in relation to industrial chain resilience.Focusing on the current rivalry in industrial chains,particularly in key intermediate products,core technologies,long-term scientific and technological competitiveness,partnership relations,and governance,we clarify the practical logic of enhancing industrial chain resilience to meet the needs of a modernized industrial system,explain short-term risks,and interpret long-term governance dialogue.Finally,we propose ways to enhance the resilience of China’s industrial chain by strengthening industrial chain risk management and early warning,achieving breakthroughs in key core technologies through scientific and technological innovation,expanding the“circle of friends”in industrial chain cooperation,and participating in global industrial chain governance.