西宁市装配式构件市场预测研究

Market analysis of prefabricated components in Xining City

在对西宁市装配式建筑调研和数据分析的基础上,利用经验公式法对西宁市未来五年装配式构件市场需求量进行预测,根据西宁市近5a来的房屋建筑规模和现有城镇化率,借助灰色预测法对经验公式自变量进行预测分析,进而预测2022—2026年西宁市混凝土预制构件的市场需求量。结果表明:西宁市2022—2026年建筑垃圾年产量的预测值分别为12.42×10^(4)m^(3)、14.83×10^(4)m^(3)、17.94×10^(4)m^(3)、22.01×10^(4)m^(3)、27.31×10^(4)m^(3),预测结果可为西宁市发展装配式建筑提供一定的参考和借鉴。

Based on the investigation and data analysis of prefabricated buildings in Xining,the empirical formula method is used to predict the market demand of prefabricated components in Xining in the next five years,and according to the scale of housing construction and the existing urbanization rate of Xining in the past five years,the independent variables of the empirical formula are predicted and analyzed with the help of gray prediction method,and then the market demand for precast concrete components in Xining in 2022—2026 is predicted.The results show that the predicted values of the annual output of construction waste in Xining in 2022—2026 are 12.42×10^(4)m^(3)、14.83×10^(4)m^(3)、17.94×10^(4)m^(3)、22.01×10^(4)m^(3)、27.31×10^(4)m^(3),respectively,and the prediction results can provide some reference and reference for the development of prefabricated buildings in Xining.