气候变化情景下裸冠菊在中国的潜在适生区分布预测

Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of the invasive plant Gymnocoronis spilanthoides in China under climate change

外来入侵植物裸冠菊(Gymnocoronis spilanthoides)具有较强的入侵适应性能快速繁殖扩散,会对本土物种的生长繁殖及本地生态安全、景观格局等产生不良影响。基于265个有效分布点和7个环境变量,调整优化预测模型的调控倍频和特征组合参数,应用MaxEnt、ArcGIS、R软件预测当前和未来(2050s, 2070s)不同气候情景(SSP126, SSP245,SSP370, SSP585)下裸冠菊在中国的潜在地理分布,定量分析其适生区的空间变化及质心移动轨迹,最后采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积(AUC)和测试遗漏率评估模型的精确性。未来气候模式选择中国国家气候中心开发的CMIP6中BCC-CSM2-MR。结果表明:(1)模型预测结果极准确,各组模型的AUC值均高于0.97;(2)最干季降水量(bio17)、最冷季度平均温(bio11)、温度季节性变化(bio4)和最暖季度平均降雨量(bio18)是影响裸冠菊地理分布的主导气候因子;(3)当前气候条件下,裸冠菊的总适生区面积达到191.18×10^(4)km^(2),约占国土总面积的19.9%,其中高适生区主要分布于我国湖南西北部、浙江东北角、台湾地区、广东和广西零星区域等;(4)未来气候变化情境下,裸冠菊的总适生面积和低适生面积均比当前气候条件下预测的面积大,且呈现沿低适生区边缘向北扩散的趋势,其中2050s的SSP245情境下总适生区面积增加的最多,达到216.64×10^(4)km^(2);(5)未来气候变化情境下,裸冠菊适生区扩增或收缩的变动区域主要集中于四川东北部和南部、陕西南部、河南南部、湖北北部、安徽北部、江苏北部。总体上看,裸冠菊在中国的潜在分布未达到饱和,呈现以长江以南为中心,向北辐射扩散趋势。从当前到未来(2050s, 2070s),裸冠菊适生区的分布质心变化大体方向是先向东北迁移,再向西南迁移。对裸冠菊在中国的潜在分布格局及对气候变化的响应研究,将有助于对其进行早期防控减少入侵所带来的危害。

Gymnocoronis spilanthoides,an invasive alien plant,has strongly invasive adaptability and rapid propagation and spread,which will adversely affect the growth and reproduction of native species,local ecological security,landscape pattern,etc.Based on 265 effective distribution points and 7 environmental variables of Gymnocoronis spilanthoides,MaxEnt,ArcGIS and R software were used to construct predictive models of suitable habitats for Gymnocoronis spilanthoides in China under current climate and 4 climate scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,SSP370,SSP585)for two future time periods(2050s,2070s),while the regularization multiplier(RM)and feature combination(FC)of MaxEnt predictive model are adjusted and optimized.The ultimate aim was to quantitatively demonstrate the potentially geographical distribution change of Gymnocoronis spilanthoides in China,variations in the area of suitable habitat and the movement path of the center of distribution.The BCC-CSM2-MR model developed by the National Climate Center of China in CMIP6 was used as a model for predicting future climate conditions.The results showed that:(1)the prediction accuracy of the MaxEnt model was extremely high,and area under the curve(AUC)of the test subject working characteristic(ROC)of each group of the MaxEnt models was higher than 0.97.(2)Precipitation of the driest quarter(bio17),mean temperature of the coldest quarter(bio11),temperature seasonality(bio4),and precipitation of the warmest quarter(bio18)were the dominant climatic factor influencing the geographical distribution of Gymnocoronis spilanthoides.(3)Under the current climatic conditions,the total suitable area of the potentially geographical distribution of Gymnocoronis spilanthoides would be 191.18×10^(4)km^(2),accounting for about 19.9%of the national land area,and highly suitable habitats mainly distributed in the northwest of Hunan,the northeast corner of Zhejiang,Taiwan,Guangdong and Guangxi sporadic areas.(4)Under the future climate change scenario,the total suitable area and the low suitable area for Gymnocoronis spilanthoides growth would be greater than the total suitable area under the current climate conditions,and the spread trend of suitable area would be shown along the edge of the low suitable area to the north.In the 2050s,the total suitable area for Gymnocoronis spilanthoides would increase mostly,reaching 216.64×10^(4)km^(2).(5)Under the future climate change situation,the change areas of the expansion or reduction of suitable habitats would be mainly concentrated in northeast and south Sichuan,southern Shaanxi,southern Henan,northern Hubei,northern Anhui,and northern Jiangsu.In general,the distribution of Gymnocoronis spilanthoides in China had not reached saturation,showing radiation diffusion centered on the south of the Yangtze River and radiating to north.The distribution center of Gymnocoronis spilanthoides from the current to the future(2050s,2070s)the general direction of change was found to migrate first to the northeast and then to the southwest.Researching the potentially geographical distribution patterns and responses to climate change of invasive plant Gymnocoronis spilanthoides on a regional scale is great significance for the prevention and control of it,thereby can also reduce the harm caused by it.