人口负增长对未来我国经济增长影响的系统模拟

A Systematic Simulation of the Impact of Negative Population Growth on Future Economic Growth in China

正确认识人口负增长对我国经济增长的影响,对于理解和应对我国未来可能面临的人口负增长问题具有重要意义。本文以中国2000-2020年数据为基础,利用系统动力学方法构建人口-经济系统模型,通过设立不同情景方案模拟未来人口负增长变化情况及其对经济增长的影响,同时探讨人口负增长背景下人力资本、人均消费水平变化对经济增长的影响。研究结果显示:我国经济总量并不会因为人口负增长而减少,依然呈现上升趋势,而人口负增长对GDP总量增长幅度会产生负向影响,且随着人口负增长幅度的增大而加剧,但GDP减少幅度与总量相比数量变化并不明显;人力资本、人均消费水平的提升可以有效缓解甚至抵消人口负增长对经济增长的负面影响,人力资本提升速度越快,经济提升力度越明显,但人均消费水平提升过快会对经济增长产生明显的抑制作用,当人均消费水平提升速度超过一定的阈值,GDP增长幅度就会减少。未来应把握好我国人口机会窗口,激发改革红利,建立经济发展方式转变与人口发展相适应的综合政策支持体系,做好充分准备应对人口负增长带来的潜在挑战,推动我国经济实现可持续健康发展。

A correct understanding of the impact of negative population growth on China’s economic growth is of great significance for understanding and coping with the negative population growth problem that China may face in the future.Based on China’s data from 2000 to 2020,a population-economic system model is constructed using the system dynamics method,and by setting up different scenarios,we simulate the change of negative population growth and its impact on economic growth in the future and we also ana⁃lyze the impact of the change of human capital and per capita consumption level on economic growth under the background of negative population growth.The results show that with negative population growth,China’s total economic volume still shows an upward trend,and the total economic volume will not be reduced because of negative population growth,but negative population growth will hurt the growth rate of the total GDP,and it will be intensified with the increase of the negative population growth rate,but the reduction of the GDP rate and the total volume compared to the quantitative change is not obvious;The improvement of human capital and per capita consumption level can effectively alleviate or even offset the negative impact of negative population growth on economic growth,the faster the rate of human capital enhancement,the more obvious the enhancement,but the per capita consumption level is raised too quickly will have a significant inhibition of economic growth,when the consumption level is raised above a certain threshold,the GDP growth rate will be reduced.In the future,we should grasp the window of opportunity for China’s population,stimulate the dividends of reform,establish a comprehensive policy support system that is compatible with the transformation of the mode of economic development and the development of the population,and be fully prepared to deal with the potential challenges brought about by the negative popula⁃tion growth,to promote China’s economy to realize sustainable and healthy development.