乌鲁木齐市土地利用变化及其空间冲突测度

Changes and spatial conflict measurement of land use in Urumqi City

土地利用冲突识别对于社会经济的可持续发展与生态文明建设具有重要意义。乌鲁木齐市作为丝绸之路经济带的核心区域,探讨其城市发展、绿洲农业及生态环境三者围绕土地利用存在的冲突原因和表现急需而必要。为此,该文以乌鲁木齐为研究区,在对2000年、2010年、2020年以及利用FLUS模型模拟的2030年土地利用特征进行分析的基础上,通过PSR模型构建土地利用冲突强度测度模型,评估了4个时期土地利用冲突,最终借助地理探测器,定量分析了导致研究区土地利用冲突的驱动因子。结果表明:①2000—2030年土地利用空间分异明显,呈现出建设用地、林地和水域面积增加,草地、耕地和未利用地面积减少的“三升三降”变化趋势。②土地利用程度综合指数皆处于中低利用程度,但整体始终呈上升趋势,土地利用一直处于发展期。③2000—2030年间土地利用冲突空间变化显著,无冲突区和轻度冲突区面积占比最大,中度冲突区面积呈正态分布,重度冲突区和高度冲突区逐年增加,且高度冲突区增幅最大。④2000—2010年,土地利用冲突热点区集中分布于中心城区北及西南部;2010—2020年,热点区范围蔓延至南部、北部山区林地周边及达坂城区盐湖两侧冲积扇附近;2020—2030年,热点区仍主要分布在建设用地周边及山区林地附近,但山区的热点区明显减少。⑤土地利用冲突空间分异驱动力的单因子影响分析结果表明,斑块密度>地均人口>GDP>坡度>高程>距区县距离>距河流距离>距道路距离;交互探测分析结果表明,(斑块密度∩高程)>(斑块密度∩地均人口)>(斑块密度∩距道路距离)。本研究能为乌鲁木齐有效协调经济发展和生态保护之间的矛盾关系,优化未来土地利用结构提供参考。

Identifying land use conflicts holds critical significance for sustainable socio-economic development and ecological civilization construction.Since Urumqi City is situated in the core region of the Silk Road Economic Belt,investigating the causes and manifestations of its land use conflicts arising from urban development,oasis agriculture,and ecological environment becomes an urgent and necessary task.With Urumqi as the study area,this study analyzed its land use characteristics in 2000,2010,and 2020,as well as those in 2030 simulated from the FLUS model.Based on this analysis and the pressure-state-response(PSR)model,a land use conflict intensity measurement model was constructed to evaluate the land use conflicts over the four periods.Finally,a geographic detector was employed to quantitatively analyze the factors driving land use conflicts in the study area.The findings indicate that:①The land use between 2000 and 2030 exhibited significant spatial differentiation,showing increased construction land,forest land,and water areas,but decreased grassland,arable land,and unused land;②The comprehensive indices of land use indicate low to medium utilization degrees but an overall rising trend,suggesting land use in a development stage;③Significant spatial changes occurred in land use conflicts between 2000 and 2030.The conflict-free and mild conflict zones occupied the largest proportions,the moderate conflict zones showed normal distributions,and severe and high-level conflict zones increased annually,with the highest increase observed in high-level conflict zones;④From^(2)000 to 2010,the hotspots of land use conflicts were distributed primarily in the north and southwest of the central urban area.From^(2)010 to 2020,they spread to the periphery of forest land in the southern and northern mountainous areas,and the areas near the alluvial fans on both sides of the salt lake in the Dabancheng District.From^(2)020 to 2030,the hotspots are still mainly located around the land for construction and near the forest land in mountainous areas but significantly decreased in the mountainous areas;⑤As demonstrated by one-way influence analysis of spatial differentiation drivers on land use conflicts,the influences of factors are in the order of patch density>population density>GDP>slope>elevation>distance from districts and counties>distance from rivers>distance from roads.Additionally,the interaction detection analysis indicates(patch density∩elevation)>(patch density∩average land population)>(patch density∩distance from roads).This study serves as a reference for effectively managing the conflicting demands between economic development and ecological conservation in Urumqi and enhancing the future land use composition.