情报失误的悖论

The Paradox of Intelligence Failure

[研究目的]所谓情报失误的悖论,一方面是指己方的情报分析人员对敌我双方政治、经济和军事实力进行综合比较,此为评估的前提;认为对方决策层所作的决策明显是非理性乃至是自杀的行为,因而不会付诸行动,此为评估的过程;另一方面,尽管对方的决策与该国的国家利益和目标背道而驰,但对方仍然勉为其难为之,最后以失败而告终,此为评估结果的自相矛盾。情报失误的悖论是一个全新的课题,不仅涉及军事情报学的内在逻辑结构及其理论框架,尤其是分析理论框架,更涉及国际政治学、认知心理学和逻辑学等领域,是一个值得深入思考和研究的问题。[研究方法]采用内容分析、文献研究等方法,通过对日本偷袭珍珠港、古巴导弹危机、第四次中东战争的案例分析及细节梳理,探究情报失误的悖论问题。[研究结论]情报失误悖论恰好印证了情报失误的难以避免,而悖论的出现可能成为发展原有分析理论或创立崭新理论体系的契机。

[Research purpose]The paradox of intelligence failure refers to the fact that,on one hand,intelligence analysts conduct a comprehensive comparison between themselves and their adversary in political,economic,and military power,which is the premise of the assessment,and assert that the decisions made by their adversary are awfully irrational and even suicidal,therefore will not be taken into actions,which is the process of the assessment;on the other hand,although the decisions of their adversary are contradictory to its national interests and goals,their adversary still reluctantly implement the dicisions,which ends in failure at last.Therefore,the assessment is self-contradictory.The paradox of intelligence failure is a brand new topic,which involves internal logical structure and the theoretical framework of military intelligence,especially the theoretical framework for analysis,and also the fields of international politics,cognitive psychology and logic.In short,how to define intelligence failure is a question that deserves in-depth consideration and research.[Research method]By means of content analysis and literature research,the paradox of intelligence failure is explored through case studies and detailed illustrations of Japanese Attack on Pearl Harbor,Cuba Missile Crisis,and the Fourth Middle East War.[Research conclusion]The paradox of intelligence failure is a proof that intelligence failure is unavoidable.Therefore,the traditional intelligence analysis methodology should be improved and innovated to minimize the intelligence failure.