基于多Agent模型的宁东基地水-能源-粮食系统协同演化研究

A Multi-Agent-Based Model for the Evolution of Water-Energy-Food System in Ningdong Base

随着淡水资源逐渐减少、能源需求量逐渐增长和粮食供应结构不断变化,加之三者之间既相互依存又相互竞争的特点,水-能源-粮食的交互关系变得异常复杂。为确保水安全、能源安全和粮食安全,实现三者的协同优化管理、资源的高效利用和可持续发展,以集资源型缺水和季节性缺水为一体的干旱敏感区域宁东基地为例,提出了基于多Agent模型的宁东基地水-能源-粮食系统模拟模型,将宁东基地水-能源-粮食系统看成是由若干个相对独立的自主Agent构成的一个合作共生网络体系,构建了宁东基地水-能源-粮食模拟框架,定义了各Agent的属性,设计了Agent之间以及Agent和环境要素之间的交互规则,基于Python语言的多Agent建模工具MESA库开发了宁东基地水-能源-粮食仿真模型,以模拟宁东能源化工基地的系统演化过程。结果表明:随着人口的增长,生活部门配水量、能源消耗和粮食消耗量均呈现上升趋势;粮食部门配水量呈现出与农作物产量变化相对应的变化趋势;宁东基地的能源部门配水量呈现上升趋势,预测年的配水量每年增长约为0.08亿m^(3);随着生态绿化覆盖面积的逐年增长,生态部门的配水量也呈现出逐年增长的趋势;每年可以向基地外输送的能源,实测年增长率约为19.85%,预测年增长率约为3.53%,预计到2025年可增加到4.96×107t标准煤。

With the gradual decrease in freshwater resources,the gradual increase in energy demand and the continuous change of food supply structure, coupled with the characteristics of both interdependence and competition among the three, the interaction of water-energyfoodbecomes more complex. In order to ensure water security, energy security and food security and achieve synergistic and optimal manage⁃ment of the three, the efficient use of resources and sustainable development, Ningdong Base, a drought-sensitive area combining resourcebasedwater shortage and seasonal water shortage, is taken as an example. This paper proposes a simulation model of water-energy-food sys⁃tem in Ningdong Base based on the Multi-Agent model, which constructs a simulation framework of water-energy-food in Ningdong Base byconsidering the water-energy-food system in Ningdong Base as a cooperative and symbiotic network system constituted by a number of rela⁃tively independent and autonomous Agents. The attributes of each Agent are defined, the interaction rules between Agents and betweenAgents and environmental elements were designed, and the water-energy-food simulation model of Ningdong Base is developed based on theMESA library, a multi-agent modeling tool in Python language, to simulate the system evolution process of Ningdong Energy and ChemicalBase. The results show that with the growth of population, the water allocation, energy consumption and food consumption in the living de⁃partment show a rising trend. The water allocation in the food department shows a changing trend corresponding to the change of crop yield.The water allocation in the energy department of the Ningdong Base shows a rising trend, and the annual growth of the water allocation in theprediction year is about 0.08 billion m^(3). With the yearly growth of the area covered by ecological greening, the water allocation in the ecologi⁃cal department also shows an increasing trend year by year. The annual energy that can be delivered out of the base has a measured annualgrowth rate of about 19.85% and a predicted annual growth rate of about 3.53%, and is expected to increase to 4.96×107 tons of standard coalby 2025.