基于Dagum基尼系数的广东省水资源空间均衡程度研究

An Analysis of Guangdong Province Water Resources Spatial Equilibrium Evaluation Based on Dagum Gini Coefficient Method

水资源配置格局与国土空间格局协同发展是保障经济社会发展的重要基础。为科学合理的评价水资源空间均衡程度,研究基于水资源空间均衡理论体系,从节水水平、刚性需水水平、开发利用水平、供需平衡程度4个维度,分别选取了相应的指标构建了评价不同维度的指标体系,采用熵权法、负载指数法、不均衡度法等方法计算分析广东省不同水平年各维度综合功能值,采用Dagum基尼系数分解法,按照珠三角核心区、沿海经济带、北部生态发展区为分区单元,综合分析研究广东省不同片区水资源空间均衡程度。研究结果表明,广东省不同片区的水资源空间均衡程度差异主要以分区间差异为主,珠三角核心区水资源空间均衡程度较差,沿海经济带水资源空间均衡程度次之,这两个片区在强化节水、充分挖潜本地水源的前提下,水资源配置和调配方向以外调水源为主;北部生态发展区水资源均衡程度较好,在节水优先的前提下,水资源配置和调配方向以合理利用本地水源为主,并可作为其他两片区的水源地。Dagum基尼系数法可更为全面深入的描述分区内、分区间等差异及超变密度贡献程度,用来评价不同分区水资源空间均衡的程度是合适的,可为区域水资源优化配置和调配提供依据和方向,从而为全面提高区域经济社会协同发展提供有力的水安全保障。

The synergy of water resources allocation pattern and land space pattern is the important foundation to ensure the economic and so⁃cial development.In order to evaluate water resources spatial balance scientifically and reasonably,this paper calculates the four dimensions comprehensive indicators of water conservation,rigid water demand,water resources development and utilization through the methods of en⁃tropy,water load index,Equilibrium based on theory of system of spatial balance of water resources.Based on the three zones such as Pearl River Delta,the Coastal Economic Zone and Northern Ecological Development Zone,the Dagum Gini coefficient method are used to evaluate the spatial balance of water resources in different regions of Guangdong Province.The research findings show that the spatial balance of water resources in different regions of Guangdong Province is mainly due to inter-regional differences.The water resources spatial equilibrium of the Pearl River Delta and the Coastal Economic Zone are relatively poor,the water resources allocation are mainly from the water transfer projects. The water resources spatial equilibrium of the Northern Ecological Development Zone are well balanced, and the water resources al⁃location is mainly based on the local water resources utilization, which can be used as water sources for other regions. The Dagum Gini coeffi⁃cient method can provide a reasonable description of differences within and between zones and the contribution of hypervariable density, andcan be used as a means of evaluating the spatial equilibrium of water resources. It can provide a basis and direction for optimizing waterresource allocation , and it can provide a forceful water security guarantee for improving the coordinated development of regional economyand society.