基于实地调研和网络调研的户用屋顶光伏发展影响因素分析

Factors Affecting the Development of Household Roof Photovoltaic Based on Field Research and Network Research

2021年12月-2022年7月,对359户线下用户进行了实地调研,并对410户线上用户进行了网络调研,运用SPSS软件对调研数据进行检验。调研结果显示,调研对象了解光伏信息越多,安装意愿越强烈,18~30岁年龄群体对光伏安装意愿最为强烈。多数调研对象可接受小于5万元光伏初投资,光伏收益、使用年限是调研对象首要关注的问题,认为初投资过高是影响光伏投资的最大因素。基于调研结果,对于设计初投资约为5万元的光伏系统,在综合考虑投资方式、补贴、贷款等因素后,得到不同投资方式下光伏年收益率约在9.73%~13.43%,投资回报期在5.38~7.76年。结合农村居民屋顶可安装光伏发电比例不低于“20%”政策,年均减碳量1.65万~8.68万t。同时结合调研结果对农村屋顶光伏未来发展提出可行性建议。

From December 2021 to July 2022,359 offline users were surveyed in person and 410 online users were surveyed online,and SPSS software was used to test the survey data.The survey results show that the respondents have stronger willingness to install PV because they know more detailed PV information.Most of them can accept the initial investment of PV less than 50000 RMB.Photovoltaic income and service life are their primary concerns,and it is believed that the biggest factor affecting photovoltaic investment when the initial investment is too high.Based on the research results,the photovoltaic system with an initial investment of 50000 RMB is designed.Considering the investment mode,subsidies,loans and other factors,the annual yield of photovoltaic under different investment modes is 9.73%~13.43%,and the return period of investment is 5.38-7.76 years.Combined with the policy-the proportion of photovoltaic power generation that can be installed on the roof of rural residents is not less than“20%”,the average annual carbon reduction is 16500~86800 tons.Meanwhile,this paper puts forward feasible suggestions for the future development of rural roof photovoltaic according to the research results.