徐州市降水量时空分布特征及趋势分析

Spatial-Temporal Distribution Characteristics and Trend Analysis of Precipitation in Xuzhou City

为研究徐州市降水量时空分布特征及变化趋势,本文根据徐州市1956—2021年的降水资料,采用Mann-Kendall检验法、Theil-Sen斜率法、线性回归方程等多种方法,从不同角度分析徐州市降水量变化趋势、突变特征及时空分布特征。结果表明,徐州市近66年平均年降水量整体呈下降趋势,趋势并不显著;降水空间分布不均匀,自西北向东南呈递增趋势;2016—2021年经历了7次枯-丰交替。研究成果可为徐州市降水预测及防汛抗旱提供参考。

To study the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics and changing trends of precipitation in Xuzhou City,this paper utilizes various methods such as the Mann-Kendall test,Theil-Sen slope method,and linear regression equations based on precipitation data from 1956 to 2021.These methods are employed to analyze the trends in precipitation,abrupt changes,and spatial-temporal distribution characteristics from different perspectives.The results indicate that the average annual precipitation in Xuzhou City has shown an overall decreasing trend over the past 66 years,although the trend is not significant.Precipitation exhibits an uneven spatial distribution,increasing from northwest to southeast.Furthermore,the years from 2016 to 2021 witnessed seven alternations between dry and wet periods.The research findings can serve as a reference for precipitation forecasting and flood and drought prevention in Xuzhou City.