福建省2010-2022年梅毒时空分布特征研究

Spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of syphilis in Fujian Province from 2010 to 2022

目的分析2010-2022年福建省梅毒时空分布特征,为制定防控策略提供科学参考和依据。方法收集来源于中国疾病预防控制中心传染病信息报告系统的2010-2022年福建省梅毒病例,利用ArcGIS 10.3软件对梅毒发病率进行空间自相关分析,SaTScan 9.6软件进行时空聚集性分析。结果2010-2022年福建省共报告280311例梅毒,2010-2019年梅毒报告发病率呈增长趋势(χ^(2)_(趋势)=2363.26,P<0.001),年均增幅4.79%;2019-2022年梅毒报告发病率呈下降趋势(χ^(2)_(趋势)=1248.62,P<0.001),年均降幅14.58%。全局自相关分析显示,2010-2022年梅毒报告发病率全局Moran’s I值均大于0(P<0.001),提示梅毒病例呈聚集性分布。局部自相关分析显示,梅毒发病率聚集类型以高-高聚集为主,且高-高聚集区分布相对固定,主要集中在宁德市辖区内,仅2012年和2013年出现低-低聚类区。时空聚集性分析显示,一级聚集区为宁德市蕉城区、霞浦县、寿宁县、周宁县、柘荣县和福安市,聚集时间为2014年6月至2020年11月。二级聚集区为近些年出现,由东向南,沿经济较发达的海岸线分布。结论福建省梅毒报告发病率存在明显的时空聚集性,高-高聚集区主要集中在宁德市辖区内,在重点抓好宁德市梅毒防控工作的同时,还应关注东南沿海地区梅毒发病率的变化。

Objective To analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of syphilis in Fujian Province from 2010 to 2022,and to provide scientific references and a solid foundation for the development of prevention and control strategies.Methods The syphilis cases in Fujian Province from 2010 to 2022 were collected from the National Notifiable Disease Report System of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.ArcGIS 10.3 software was utilized to perform spatial autocorrelation analysis on the incidence rate of syphilis,whereas SaTScan 9.6 software was used for spatiotemporal cluster analysis.Results A total of 280311 syphilis cases were reported in Fujian Province from 2010 to 2022.The incidence rate of syphilis increased from 2010 to 2019(χ^(2)_(trend)=2363.26,P<0.001),with an average annual growth rate of 4.79%.However,from 2019 to 2022,the incidence rate of syphilis showed a decline(χ^(2)_(trend)=1248.62,P<0.001),with an average annual decrease of 14.58%.Global spatial autocorrelation analysis exhibited that the Moran's I values of syphilis incidence rate from 2010 to 2022 were all higher than 0(P<0.001),indicating a clustered distribution of syphilis cases.Local spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated that the cluster type of syphilis incidence was mainly high-high clustering,and the high-high clustering areas were relatively constant and concentrated in the jurisdiction of Ningde City,with only a few instances of low-low clustering areas observed in 2012 and 2013.Spatiotemporal cluster analysis revealed that the primary clustering areas were Jiaocheng District,Xiapu County,Shouning County,Zhouning County,Zherong County,and Fu'an City in Ningde City,with the clustering period from June 2014 to November 2020.Secondary clustering areas have emerged in recent years,and they are distributed along the economically developed coastline from east to south.Conclusions A significant spatiotemporal clustering of syphilis incidence rates in Fujian Province has been observed.The high-high clustering areas are mainly concentrated in the jurisdiction of Ningde City.In addition to focus on syphilis prevention and control in Ningde City,it is vital to monitor changes in syphilis incidence rates in the southeastern coastal areas.