成渝地区双城经济圈工业结构变动对碳排放的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Industrial Structure Changes on Carbon Emission in Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle

基于LMDI模型和《中国地区投入产出表》,以工业内部23个细分行业为单元,分析成渝地区双城经济圈工业结构变动对碳排放的影响,探讨产业结构效应的行业和阶段异质性。总体上,成渝地区双城经济圈工业结构变动对工业碳排放增加有抑制作用,但贡献率较小;不同细分行业的产业结构效应大部分为负,且抑制强度逐渐增大;从不同类型的产业来看,战略性主导产业和特色优势产业碳排放量占比较低;区域一般产业和区域基础产业则占比高,碳排放量前6位的细分行业均属于这两类,其中煤炭开采与洗选业、金属冶炼和压延业、非金属矿物制品业3个细分行业的产业结构效应恒为正,促进碳排放。因此,以工业结构调整促进成渝地区双城经济圈碳减排,应大力发展区域战略性主导产业和特色优势产业,循序渐进推进区域一般产业和区域基础产业降碳减碳,培育富有川渝特色的绿色低碳产业,构建多元化能源体系,创新川渝两地工业低碳化发展协同机制。

Based on the LMDI model and the China Regional Input-Output Tables,the article analyses the impact of structural changes in industrial segments within Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle on carbon emissions,and examines the differences in the impact of industrial structure by industry and stage.In general,the changes in the industrial structure of Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle have a suppressive effect on the growth of industrial carbon emissions,but the contribution rate is relatively small;most of the industrial structure effects of different subdivided industries are negative,and the intensity of suppression gradually increases;From the point of view of different types of industries,the carbon emissions of strategic leading industries and featured advantageous industries account for a low proportion,while the regional general industries and regional basic industries account for a high proportion,and the top 6 subdivided industries in terms of carbon emissions all belong to these two types,among them 3 sub-sectors of coal mining and washing,metal smelting and rolling,and non-metallic mineral products industries have a constant positive industrial structure effect and promote carbon emissions.Therefore,in order to promote the reduction of carbon emissions in Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle through industrial restructuring,it is necessary to vigorously develop regional strategic leading industries and characteristic advantageous industries,gradually promote regional general industries and regional basic industries to reduce carbon emissions,cultivate green and low-carbon industries with Sichuan and Chongqing characteristics,build a diversified energy system,and innovate synergistic mechanisms for the development of industrial decarbonisation between Sichuan and Chongqing regions.