基于LMDI-SD模型的山东省建筑业碳排放影响因素与情景预测

INFLUENTIAL FACTORS AND SCENARIO FORECAST OF CARBON EMISSIONS OF CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY IN SHANDONG PROVINCE BASED ON LMDI-SD MODEL

以山东省建筑业为研究对象,通过对数平均迪氏指数分解(LMDI)模型分析碳排放相关影响因素,构建系统动力学模型,通过调控GDP增长率、建材占比和碳交易政策因素,预测4种情景对碳排放的影响。结果表明:1)经济收益效应和间接碳排放强度是影响山东省建筑业碳排放的主要驱动因素;2)单一政策仿真情景下,山东省建筑业碳排放总量增长趋势逐年变缓,相比经济增速和碳交易政策调整,建材结构改善的减排贡献度更高;3)在综合调控方案下,2030年的山东省建筑业碳排放强度相比2006年下降64.34%,可达到国家2030年碳排放强度下降60%的目标。

Taking the construction industry of Shandong Province as the research object,this paper analyzes the relevant influencing factors of carbon emissions through the logarithmic mean Divisia index(LMDI) model,builds a system dynamics model,and predicts the impact of four different scenarios on carbon emissions by regulating GDP growth rate,the proportions of building materials and carbon trading policy.The results show that:1) the economic benefit effect and indirect carbon emission intensity are the main driving factors affecting the carbon emissions of the construction industry in Shandong Province.2) Under the single policy simulation scenario,the growth trend of the total carbon emissions of the construction industry in Shandong Province has slowed down year by year.Compared with the economic growth and carbon trading policy adjustment,the contribution of the improvement of the building materials structure to the emission reduction is higher.3) Under the comprehensive regulation and control plan,the carbon emission intensity of the construction industry of Shandong Province in 2030 will decrease by 64.34% compared with 2006,which reaches the national goal of reducing the carbon emission intensity by 60% in 2030.