基于偏最小二乘法结构方程模型的城市轨道交通工程碳排放影响因素分析

ANALYSIS OF FACTORS INFLUENCING CARBON EMISSIONS OF URBAN RAIL TRANSIT PROJECTS BASED ON PARTIAL LEAST SQUARES STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODELING

城市轨道交通工程在建设和运营过程中需要消耗大量的能源,同时会产生大量的固体废弃物和二氧化碳,其碳减排工作刻不容缓。基于国内外城市轨道交通工程碳排放研究成果,将经济、技术、制度作为影响城市轨道交通工程碳排放的3大主要因素。选取城轨交通固定资产投资额、低碳技术成熟度、环境规制强度等12个因素作为显变量指标,在此基础上设计调查问卷进行调研。利用偏最小二乘法结构方程模型分析城市轨道交通工程碳排放各个影响因素的作用路径和效用。研究发现,经济制度以及技术因素对城市轨道交通工程碳排放影响均较大(0.433,0.317,0.224),因此城市轨道交通工程的碳解锁需要经济制度经济因素的共同参与。且经济因素对制度和技术的影响很大(0.748,0.514),故可以重点加大对经济要素的投入,从而实现城市轨道交通工程的碳减排工作。同时提出了对策建议,对于城市轨道交通节能减排具有重要的参考价值。

Urban rail transit projects consume a substantial amount of energy and generate significant quantities of solid waste and carbon dioxide during their construction and operation.It is imperative to address carbon emissions in urban rail transit projects without delay.This study drew upon research achievements on carbon emissions from urban rail transit projects,both domestically and internationally,and identified the three primary factors that influence carbon emissions in such projects:economy,technology,and institutions.Twelve factors,including fixed asset investment in urban rail transit,maturity of low-carbon technologies,and stringency of environmental regulations,were selected as observable indicators.Then a survey questionnaire was carefully designed to conduct empirical research.By employing the partial least squares structural equation model,we analyzed the causal pathways and impacts of these influencing factors on carbon emissions in urban rail transit projects.The research found that both economic systems and technological factors have significant impacts on the carbon emissions of urban rail transit projects(0.433,0.317,0.224).Therefore,achieving carbon reduction in urban rail transit projects requires the joint participation of economic systems and economic factors.Moreover,economic factors have a significant influence on both systems and technologies(0.748,0.514).Therefore,it is important to focus on increasing investment in economic elements to achieve carbon reduction in urban rail transit projects.Moreover,we provide actionable recommendations,with significant reference value for achieving energy efficiency and emission reduction in urban rail transit systems.