华北城市群碳排时空演变格局及影响因素研究

RESEARCH ON SPATIO-TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF CARBON ARRANGEMENT IN NORTH CHINA CITIES AND ITS INFLUENCING FACTORS

不断增加的城市能源消耗和CO_(2)排放对区域减排政策构成了严峻挑战。基于2004—2020年的夜间灯光遥感模拟反演华北地区29个城市的碳排放数据,并采用空间自相关、空间Markov链从动态和静态方面对华北地区市域视角碳排放空间分布特征进行分析,以探讨城市间的聚集效应;同时为进一步明确碳排影响因素,基于时空地理加权回归模型,从经济、社会、环境和政策方面对影响城市碳排的相关因素进行定量识别,并探讨了其空间异质性,为差异化减排提供理论依据。结果表明:华北地区人均碳排放的增速在逐渐减小,同时城市间具有明显的聚集特征。各因素对不同时期的华北地区各城市碳排放的影响呈时空异质性,经济发展水平和产业结构是促进碳排放产生的强大推动力,政府政策对于碳排放的抑制作用最为明显,城镇化率和气候对碳排放的产生整体具有先促进后抑制的特征。

Increasing urban energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions pose serious challenges to regional emission reduction policies.Based on the remote sensing simulation of night lights from 2004 to 2020,this study inverted the carbon emission data of 29 cities in North China,and used spatial autocorrelation and spatial Markov chain to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of carbon emissions from the perspective of cities in North China from the dynamic and static aspects,to explore the agglomeration effect between cities;at the same time,in order to further clarify the factors affecting carbon emissions,based on the weighted regression model of time,space and geography,this study quantitatively identifies the relevant factors affecting urban carbon emissions from the aspects of the economy,society,environment and policy,and discusses the spatial heterogeneity can provide a theoretical basis for differentiated emission reduction.The results shows that the growth rate of per capita carbon emissions in North China is gradually decreasing,and there are obvious clustering characteristics between those cities.The influence of various factors on carbon emissions of cities in North China in different periods shows temporal and spatial heterogeneity.The level of economic development and industrial structure are strong driving forces to promote carbon emissions.Government policies have the most obvious inhibitory effect on carbon emissions.The urbanization rate and climate have the characteristics of first promoting and then inhibiting the production of carbon emissions.