新冠肺炎疫情对居民出行行为的影响

Impact of COVID-19 on Residents’Travel Behavior

为探究新冠肺炎疫情对居民交通出行的影响,于2020年9月在云南省昆明市开展实地问卷调查,收集了1123名居民在疫情发生前后的出行特征数据,利用MNL模型将出行者的个人特性、家庭特性及偏好作为影响因素,包括性别、年龄、家庭年收入、家庭人口数、家庭是否拥有汽车、所在地区、职业等,揭示了疫情前后居民出行行为的变化,探究了显著影响居民出行次数和出行方式的关键因素。结果表明:疫情发生后,每周出行次数≤3次的居民人数是疫情前的1.89倍,每周出行次数≥7次的居民人数是疫情前的0.46倍;选择步行、自行车、电动车、私家车等私人交通方式出行的居民人数比疫情前增加了10.28%,而选择公交车、地铁、共享单车/汽车、网约车出行的居民人数比疫情前减少了7.9%;疫情发生后,年龄、所在地区、职业、家庭年收入、家庭人口数、家庭是否拥有汽车、是否乘坐公交/地铁、是否乘坐共享单车/汽车、换乘次数是否重要、接触人员数量是否重要这10个因素对居民的出行次数和出行方式有显著地影响;居民的出行行为发生了显著变化,出行次数明显减少,出行方式倾向于选择步行、自行车、电动车、私家车等私人交通方式。

To investigate the impact of covid-19 on travel,a field survey is conducted in Kunming of Yunnan Province in September 2020.Data on travel characteristics are collected from 1123 residents before and after the outbreak by using MNL model,the individual characteristics,family characteristics and preferences of travelers are taken as influencing factors,including gender,age,annual household income,household population,whether the family owns a car,location,occupation,and so on,revealing the changes in travel behavior of residents before and after the epidemic,the key factors that significantly affect the number and mode of residents’travel are investigated.The result shows that(1)after the outbreak of the epidemic,the number of residents who travelled less than 3 times per week is 1.89 times of that before the outbreak,and the number of residents who travelled more than 7 times per week is 0.46 times of that before the outbreak;(2)the number of residents who chose to travel by private means of transport,such as walking,cycling,electric cars and private cars,increases by 10.28 percent compared with the number before the epidemic,the number of residents choosing buses,subways,shared bikes/cars and ride-hailing services decreases by 7.9%;(3)after the outbreak,age,location,occupation,annual family income,household population,whether the family owns a car,whether the family takes a bus or subway,whether the ride is shared bike or car,whether the number of transfers is important,whether the number of contacts is important,these 10 factors have a significant impact on the number of trips and travel ways of residents;(4)the travel behavior of residents has changed significantly,the number of trips has reduced significantly,the way of travel tends to choose walking,bicycles,electric vehicles,private cars and other private transport.