基于Gompertz和Logistic组合模型的汽车保有量中长期预测

Medium and Long Term Prediction on Vehicle Ownership Based on Combined Model of Gompertz and Logistic

为探究中国汽车市场未来中长期阶段的运行预期,首先基于历史数据,通过ARMA模型对2021—2050年期间我国人均GDP水平进行了预测。然后,分别建立了Gompertz模型、Logistic模型以及Gompertz和Logistic组合模型对中国汽车千人保有量进行了中长期预测。在Gompertz模型中,依据各国发展经验与我国现实国情设定了高中低3类场景的汽车千人保有量水平:590 veh/千人、440 veh/千人、315 veh/千人,并对Gompertz模型预测结果进行了敏感性分析,确定了汽车千人保有量拐点位于2020年左右。随后,为修正数据口径的差异,在Logistics模型中将2002年设为结构突变点并通过了邹检验,拟合曲线表示从2012—2028年是我国汽车千人保有量快速增长期。随着进一步检验,发现Gompertz和Logistic两种模型对比与组合有助于准确识别我国汽车千人保有量的快速发展期与增速放缓拐点。Gompertz和Logistic的组合模型拟合曲线随时间发展的趋势呈S形,我国汽车千人保有量的快速增长阶段为2012—2028年期间。结果表明:当前我国汽车市场仍处于普及期,但受2020年开始的新冠疫情影响,增速放缓拐点将推迟至2021年,并于当年实现我国汽车千人保有量的最大增长,2050年将达到404.91 veh/千人,最终在2060年达到汽车千人保有量的饱和水平。

In order to explore the medium and long term operation expectation of China’s auto market in the future,firstly based on historical data,the GDP per capita level of China from 2021 to 2050 is forecasted by ARMA model.Then,Gompertz model,Logistic model and the combined model of Gompertz and Logistic are established to forecast the vehicles per thousand people in China in the medium and long term.In Gompertz model,according to the development experience of various countries and the reality of China,the numbers of vehicles per thousand people are set in 3 kinds of scenarios:590 veh/thousand,440 veh/thousand,315 veh/thousand,the sensitivity analysis of Gompertz model is carried out,and the turning point of vehicles per thousand people is determined to be around 2020.Then,in order to correct the difference of data caliber,2002 is set as the structural mutation point in the Logistics model and passes Zou test.The fitting curve shows that the period from 2012 to 2028 is the period of rapid growth of the vehicles per thousand people in China.With further examination,it is found that the comparison and combination of Gompertz and Logistic models are helpful to accurately identify the rapid development period and the slow down inflection point of the vehicles per thousand people in China.The curve of Gompertz and Logistic combined model is s-shaped,and the rapid growth stage of China’s vehicle ownership is from 2012 to 2028 period.The result shows that the current auto market in China is still in the period of popularization,but due to the Covid-19 pandemic began in 2020,the inflection point of the slowdown is delayed to 2021,the largest increase in the number of vehicles per thousand people in China will be achieved in that year,and it will reach 404.91 veh/thousand by 2050 and eventually reach the saturation level of vehicles per thousand people by 2060.