基于大数据的公路货运市场景气指数体系构建及预警监测

Prosperity Index System Construction,Prior-warming and Monitoring of Road Freight Market Based on Big Data

为了深入研究公路货运市场运行规律,定量刻画公路货运市场波动情况,科学判断发展趋势,采用了景气指数方法,基于道路货运行业统计数据和货运车辆动态运行数据,从市场规模、运输效率、运输价格、宏观环境等维度筛选与公路货运密切相关的指标,建立了公路货运市场景气指数体系,并运用时差相关分析法将指标分为先行、同步、滞后这3类,依据景气指数模型合成公路货运市场月度指数。通过对2018—2020年公路货运的月度数据进行了合成计算,并对数据进行统计分析,结合行业运行实际研究确定指数波动阈值,形成公路货运市场预警信号灯,直观描述公路货运市场波动情况。结果表明:我国公路货运市场与宏观经济运行相关性较强,物流业订单量是公路货运行业共行指标,先于行业1~2个月左右;重载货车销量以及社会物流总额指标滞后公路货运行业4~5个月;与公路货运市场相关的车辆规模、行驶里程、平均速度、运输价格、货运量等指标则为同步指标,基本反映市场波动状态,且呈现出明显的季节性变化特征;同时,疫情期间公路货运市场表现出较强的弹性和韧性,公路货运行业呈“V”字型快速恢复,并先于二、三产业恢复至正常水平,发挥了基础性、先导性的服务保障作用。

In order to deeply study the operation rule of the road freight market,quantitatively characterize the fluctuation of the road freight market,and scientifically judge the development trend,the prosperity index method is adopted based on the statistical data of the road freight industry and the dynamic operation data of freight vehicles,and the indicators closely related to road freight are screened from the dimensions of market size,transportation efficiency,transportation price,macro environment and other dimensions,and the road freight market prosperity index system is established,and the time difference correlation analysis method is used to divide the indicators into 3 categories:leading,synchronous and lag.Monthly index of road freight market is synthesized based on the prosperity index model.Through the synthesis and calculation of the monthly data of road freight from 2018 to 2020,the statistical analysis of the data is carried out,the index fluctuation threshold is determined by combining the actual research of the industry operation,the early warning signal of the road freight market is formed,and the fluctuation of the road freight market is visually described.The result shows that(1)China’s road freight market has a strong correlation with macroeconomic operation,and the order volume of logistics industry is the common indicator of road freight industry,which is about 1-2 months ahead of the industry;(2)the sales volume of heavy-duty trucks and the total social logistics indicators lag behind the road freight industry by 4-5 months;(3)indicators such as vehicle scale,mileage,average speed,transportation price,and freight volume related to the road freight market are synchronous indicators,which basically reflect the market fluctuation state and show obvious seasonal change characteristics;(4)at the same time,the road freight market shows strong resilience and resilience during the epidemic,the road freight industry recoveries rapidly in a V-shape trend and returns to normal levels before the secondary and tertiary industries,that playing a basic and leading role in service guarantee.