基于动态贝叶斯网络的冷链物流风险评价

Risk Assessment on Cold Chain Logistics Based on Dynamic Bayesian Network

为解决水产品冷链物流风险的单向动态评估,识别影响生鲜水产品冷链物流风险的关键因素,根据生鲜水产品的特点,对水产品冷链物流的各环节风险进行了具体化描述,建立了生鲜水产品冷链物流风险体系。首先,使用云模型对生鲜水产品冷链物流风险指标进行了筛选,确定了由加工风险、运输风险、仓储风险、销售风险、信息风险等5个1级指标和18个2级指标组成的生鲜水产品冷链物流风险评价指标体系。其次,采用三角模糊数确定了动态贝叶斯网络的先验概率和转移概率,最终提出了基于动态贝叶斯网络的生鲜水产品冷链物流风险评价模型。基于此模型,以青岛某水产品冷链物流公司为例展开了实证研究,利用GeNIe可视化软件建立了动态贝叶斯网络模型,对生鲜水产品冷链物流风险进行了概率计算和特征敏感性计算。结果表明:生鲜水产品冷链物流流通环节风险发生概率最高的环节为运输风险和仓储风险,运输环节和加工环节是影响水产品冷链物流的关键风险因素;运输路径的优化、冷链物流信息共享程度、仓储温控设备和冷库合理化设计程度对水产品冷链物流风险的影响最大。通过该实证分析,验证了基于动态贝叶斯网络的生鲜水产品冷链物流风险评价体系的可行性。

In order to solve the one-way dynamic assessment of the cold chain logistics risk of aquatic products and identify the key factors affecting the cold chain logistics risk of fresh aquatic products,according to the characteristics of fresh aquatic products,the risk of each link of cold-chain logistics of aquatic products is described concretely,and the risk system of cold chain logistics of fresh aquatic products is established.First,the risk indicator of cold chain logistics of fresh aquatic products is screened by using cloud model,and the risk assessment indicator system of cold chain logistics of fresh aquatic products,which is composed of 51 first-level and 182 second-level indicators such as processing risk,transportation risk,storage risk,sales risk and information risk,is determined.Second,triangular fuzzy number is used to determine the prior probability and transfer probability of dynamic Bayesian network.Finally,a risk assessment model for cold chain logistics of fresh aquatic products based on dynamic Bayesian network is proposed.Based on the model,taking an aquatic product cold chain logistics company in Qingdao as an example,a dynamic Bayesian network model is built using GeNIe visualization software,the probability and characteristic sensitivity of cold chain logistics risk of fresh aquatic products are calculated.The result shows that(1)the highest probability of risk in cold chain logistics of fresh aquatic products is transportation risk and storage risk,and transportation and processing are the key risk factors;(2)the transportation route optimization,the cold chain logistics information sharing,the storage temperature control equipment and the rational design of cold storage have the greatest impact on the cold chain logistics risk of aquatic products.Through the empirical analysis,the feasibility of cold chain logistics risk assessment system for fresh aquatic products based on dynamic Bayesian network is verified.