进退相济:国有经济的产业布局与宏观稳定效应

Synchronic Advance and Retreat:The Industrial Layout and Macro-Stabilizing Effect of State-Owned Economy

当前,中国形成了“上游国企主导,下游民企主导”的垂直结构。这种独特的“所有制+产业布局”模式是否有利于经济的长期平稳运行?本文在梳理事实及文献的基础上,通过构建并估计一个两部门DSGE模型分析了国有经济宏观稳定效应的作用机理及政策效果。研究表明:国企投资的逆周期调节有力地熨平了经济波动,且其效果随着生产垂直性的提升而增强。原因在于,上游国企的产品不仅有下游民企生产所需的投入品,也有最终消费品,因此国有经济的逆周期扩张在稳产出和稳物价的同时还稳定了居民预期,进而提高了社会福利。进一步分析表明:国有经济在参与宏观调控时主要应着力于解决供给冲击,且存在较大的逆周期调节政策空间,同时还应注意结合跨周期的政策设计。本文的研究为丰富宏观调控的政策工具箱和新一轮国企改革提供了参考。

Nowadays China has formed a vertical structure of"upstream state-owned enterprises(SOEs)leading,downstream private-owned enterprises(POEs)leading".Whether this unique mode of"ownership+industrial layout"contributes to the long-term smooth opera-tion of China's economy?After combing the stylized facts and literature,this paper constructs and estimates a two-sector DSCE model to ana-lyze the mechanism and policy effect of macro stability effect of state-owned economy.This paper shows that the counter-cyclical adjustment of SOEs'investment plays an important role in smoothing economic fluctuations,and the stronger the production verticality is,the stronger the effect is.The reason is that the products of the SOEs are not only intermediate inputs needed by downstream POEs,but also final consumer goods.Therefore,the counter-cyclical expansion of the state-owned economy not only stabilizes production and prices,but also stabilizes resi-dents expectations and improves social welfare.Further analysis shows that when participating in macroeconomic regulation,the state-owned economy should not only focus on solving the supply shock,but also have large policy space,and it is more useful to combine the investment mechanism with cross-cyclical adjustments.The conclusion provides a reference for enriching the macro-control policy toolbox and the new round of SOEs reform.