岸田内阁防卫政策调整的决策过程及其特点——以反击能力的推进为例

Decision-Making Process and Characteristics of Kishida Cabinet's Defense Policy Adjustment:Taking the Advance of Counterstrike Capabilities as an Example

岸田内阁对防卫三文书的修订是战后日本防卫政策的一次重大调整,而拥有反击能力则是此次调整的核心。由于岸田文雄自身的政治基盘比较脆弱,内阁本身较为弱势,岸田不得不依靠自民党和美国的力量协助决策。在他的推动下,自民党在拥有反击能力的决策过程中发挥了关键作用,岸田内阁防卫政策的决策过程体现了明显的“政高党高”特征。自民党主导了围绕反击能力具体内容的讨论,并和防卫省合作,明确了反击能力所需的装备技术。然而,逐渐掌握话语权的自民党保守势力却在反击能力所需的预算及其财源问题上与岸田发生矛盾冲突,反而威胁到了首相的决策权。另一方面,美国因素同样在本次防卫政策的决策过程中起到了助推和加速作用,未来也可能持续影响日本反击能力的落实进程。

Kishida Cabinet's revision of the three security documents is a major adjustment of Japan's defense policy after World War II,and its core is to possess the counterstrike capabilities.Because of Kishida's weak political base and weak cabinet,he had to rely on the Liberal Democratic Party and the United States to assist in decision-making.Driven by him,the LDP played a key role in the decision-making process about the counterstrike capabilities,and this process reflected the obvious characteristic of“High Government and High Party”.The LDP had led the discussion on the specifics of the counterstrike capabilities and had clarified the equipment and technology needed for them in cooperation with the Defense Ministry.However,the conservative forces of the LDP,which had been gaining power,were in conflict with Kishida over the budget and financial resources needed for the counterstrike capabilities,threatening his decision-making power.On the other hand,the United States also played a boosting and accelerating role in the decision-making process,and may continue to affect the implementation process of Japan's counterstrike capabilities in the future.