货币政策预期管理:文献回顾及其在中国的应用

Expectation Management of Monetary Policy:Literature Review and China’s Application

梳理货币政策预期管理的内涵和主要应用方式,并在分析货币政策预期管理问题研究进展的基础上,提出符合中国实际的货币政策预期管理实践思路。研究表明:货币政策预期管理的内涵外延较丰富,包含前瞻指引、央行沟通等多种形式。截至目前,关于货币政策预期管理问题的学术研究存在预期管理应用领域单一、跨国溢出效应考虑不充分、前瞻信息传递频率不灵活等问题,后续研究可以将完善和拓展预期管理指标体系及其应用领域、科学测算预期管理跨国溢出效应、准确把握和协调货币政策预期频率频次等作为重点方向。结合中国实际,货币政策预期管理实践应该重点兼顾跨周期、双循环等。

This paper summarizes connotation origin and main application methods of monetary policy expectation management,and proposes practical ideas of monetary policy expectations management in line with China’s actual situation on the basis of analyzing research progress of monetary policy expectation management.The research results show that there are many forms of the monetary policy expectation management,such as forward guidance,central bank communication,and so on.Up to now,academic research on the monetary policy expectations management has many deficiencies,including the single application field,insufficient consideration of cross-border spillover effects and inflexible frequency of forward information transmission.Follow-up research should focus on how to improve and expand the expectation management indicator systems and application fields,scientifically measure the cross-border spillover effects of expectation management,and accurately grasp and coordinate the expectation frequency of monetary policy.In view of China’s actual situation,the practice of monetary policy expectation management should take into account the regulatory thinking and strategies,such as cross-cycle regulation,new development pattern of dual cycle,and so on.