浙江某三甲医院糖尿病患者次均住院费用及药占比时间序列预测分析

Time series prediction analysis of average hospitalization expenditure and drug proportion of diabetes patients in a grade-a tertiary hospital in Zhejiang province

目的运用ARIMA模型分析某三甲医院糖尿病住院患者费用结构和趋势,为有效控制糖尿病住院费用、减轻患者经济负担提供科学依据。方法收集某三甲医院2012—2022年18371例糖尿病患者住院费用资料,采用ARIAM模型对2012—2021年糖尿病住院患者次均住院费用、药占比进行拟合,用2022年数据评价预测效果,并预测2023—2025年次均住院费用、药占比情况。结果预测值和实际值的差距较小,平均绝对百分比误差在可接受范围内,ARIAM模型能较好运用于糖尿病费用预测。结论次均住院费用呈下降趋势,“五色一图一指数”管理模式取得成效;药占比下降明显,费用结构需进一步优化;基于糖尿病的费用预测研究有待深入。

Objective This study conducted the ARIMA model to analyze the cost structure and trend of inpatients with diabetes in a grade-A tertiary hospital and provide scientific basis for effectively controlling diabetes hospitalization expenses and reduce patient’s economic burden.Methods The data of 18371 inpatients with diabetes from 2012 to 2022 in a grade-A tertiary hospital were collected.We collected inpatient data of diabetes from 2012 to 2021 to fit the average inpatient expenses and drug proportion,and used data 2022 to verify the effect of model prediction.We predicted the average inpatient expenses and drug proportion from 2023 to 2025.Results The difference between the predicted value and the actual value was small,and the mean absolute percentage error was within the acceptable range.ARIAM model could be used to predict the expenses of diabetes.Conclusion The average cost of hospitalization showed a decreasing trend,and“the five colors,one map,one index”management model has achieved results.The proportion of drugs decreased obviously,but the composition of hospitalization expenses should be further optimized.The research of expenses prediction based on diabetes needs to be depended.