辽宁省数字经济与城市韧性协调发展时空演化特征与驱动力

Spatial-temporal evolutionary characteristics and drivers of coordinated development of digital economy and urban resilience in Liaoning Province

数字经济与城市韧性的协调发展是现代化城市综合实力的重要体现。以2012—2020年辽宁省14个地级市为研究样本,构建数字经济与城市韧性的评价指标体系,并运用熵值法计算两系统权重与综合得分,运用耦合协调模型测定两系统间的耦合协调度。最后借助马尔科夫链与地理探测器对耦合协调的动态演变规律以及影响因素进行探讨。结果表明:(1)数字经济与城市韧性得分均不断上升,数字经济得分增长速度远快于城市韧性;(2)辽宁省内耦合协调等级整体上呈现核心—边缘特征,各地市耦合协调等级呈现良好的发展上升态势,地区差异逐渐减小且存在“俱乐部收敛”现象,其动态演进是一个相对持续、渐进的过程,短期内难以实现跨越式发展;(3)数字经济与城市韧性耦合协调发展是多种因子综合作用的结果,其中社会经济发展水平是主导性驱动,数字化水平是本底性驱动,城市活力是潜在驱动。

The coordinated development of the digital economy and urban resilience is an important manifestation of the comprehensive strength of modern cities.Using 14 prefecture-level cities in Liaoning Province as research samples from 2012 to 2020,this paper constructed an evaluation index system for the digital economy and urban resilience.And this paper used the entropy method to calculate the weights and comprehensive scores of the two systems,and employed a coupling coordination model to determine the degree of coupling coordination between the two systems.Finally,this paper explored the dynamic evolution laws and influencing factors of coupling coordination using the Markov chain and geodetector.The results showed that:①The scores of the digital economy and urban resilience have been continuously increasing,with the growth rate of the digital economy far exceeding that of urban resilience.②The overall level of coupling coordination in Liaoning Province presented a core-periphery feature,and the coupling coordination level of each city showed a good upward trend of development,with regional differences gradually decreasing and a“club convergence”phenomenon existing.The dynamic evolution was a relatively sustained and gradual process,and it was difficult to achieve leapfrog development in the short term.③The coordinated development of the digital economy and urban resilience was the result of the comprehensive effect of multiple factors,among which the level of social and economic development was the dominant driving force,the level of digitization was the basic driving force,and urban vitality was the potential driving force.