福建马尾松林可燃物载量估算模型构建

Estimation Model of Combustible Material Load in Fujian Pinus Massoniana Forests

为满足防治森林火灾需求,寻求一种简便且快速的森林可燃物载量估算方法,以2020年10月—2021年12月福建省森林火灾风险普查乔木样地实地调查数据为基础,以福建省主要林分类型——马尾松林为研究对象,构建可燃物载量总量、乔木层、灌木层、草本层、枯落物层和腐殖质层在内的各层模型,采用联合估计方法解决总量与分量不兼容问题,运用改进的单纯形法求解模型参数,并通过交叉建模检验的方式来验证模型的准确性。结果表明,所建立的天然和人工马尾松林的兼容性可燃物载量估算模型,除枯落物层外,其它模型的决定系数和预估精度均较高,证实其在马尾松林可燃物载量估算中的实用性。同时,以实际的马尾松小班数据进行可燃物载量估算应用。研究成果可为森林火灾防治工作及进一步改进和优化可燃物载量动态估算模型提供参考。

In order to satisfy the requirements of forest fire prevention and management,and to identify a simplified,rapid method for the estimation of forest combustible material load,a focus was placed on Pinus massoniana,a primary forest type in Fujian Province.Based on the field survey data of tree plots of forest fire risk census in Fujian Province from October 2020 to December 2021,and a multilayered model was constructed to estimate the total combustible mater ial load,including the layers of trees,shrubs,herbs,litter,and humus.A combined estimation approach was employed to address the discrepancy between total and component loads,an enhanced simplex method was applied to calculate model parameters,and cross-model validation was used to verify the model’s precisio n.The results indicated that,with the exception of the litter layer,the devel oped compatibility model for estimating combustible material load in both natural and artificial Pinus massoniana forests demonstrated high corr elation coefficients and estimation accuracy,validating its practical utility in such estimations.At the same time,the estimation of combustible material load was applied based on actual small class data of Pinus massoniana.The finding s of this study can provide reference for forest fire prevention and management efforts,as well as further improvement and optimization of dynamic estimation models for combustible material load.