基于概率收益分析算法的园区微电网收益优化研究

Research on Profit Optimization of Park Micro-Grid Based on Probabilistic Income Analysis Algorithm

鉴于园区微电网先期投资大,分布式电源出力具有不确定性的特点,为充分挖掘并定量评估微网运行的经济效益,提出了一种基于概率收益分析算法的微电网经济运行评价方法。基于收益概率分布角度量化描述微电网投资收益的不确定性,在电力系统概率预测算法基础上,充分考虑资源不确定性与预测不确定性,建立负荷和光伏出力的不确定性模型,生成大量随机场景,并采用蒙特卡洛方法对微电网的月收益进行分析,生成相应的收益概率分布曲线,从而实现微电网收益不确定性的量化。算例结果表明,所提方法能够有效对比不同配置的微电网的收益,为园区微电网的运行决策提供了科学依据。

In view of the large initial investment of park micro-grid and the uncertainty of distributed power generation,in order to fully explore and quantitatively evaluate the economic benefits of micro-grid operation,a micro-grid economic operation evaluation method based on probabilistic income analysis algorithm is proposed.In this algorithm,the uncertainty of micro-grid investment income is quantified from the perspective of income probability distribution,the resource uncertainty and prediction uncertainty are fully considered,the uncertainty models of load and photovoltaic output are established,and a large number of random scenarios are generated.By using Monte Carlo method to analyze the micro-grid monthly income,the corresponding income probability distribution curve is generated to realize the quantification of micro-grid uncertain income.The calculation results show that the method can compare the benefits of different micro-grid configuration parameters,and provide a scientific basis for the investment decision of park micro-grid.