农村人口转变与农业强国建设

The Transformation of Rural Population and the Construction of China's Strength in Agriculture

建设农业强国既是全面建设社会主义现代化强国的重要组成部分,也是立足基本国情农情、坚定不移走中国特色社会主义道路的必然要求。本文构建了农村人口转变与建设农业强国的理论分析框架,结合第七次全国人口普查数据对未来农村常住人口总量和结构进行预测。研究表明,到2035年农业劳动力需求量将不足6000万人;到2050年我国农村常住人口总量与总人口之间的比值将下降到20%~22%之间,农村16~64岁劳动力与农村总人口之间的比值将下降到50%以下。农村人口转变将影响我国粮食和重要农产品的供给、深刻改变传统的人地关系格局、影响农业技术进步的偏向路径以及加速推进我国从人口大国向人力资源大国迈进。在建设农业强国的新征程中,要根据农村人口总量和结构变化夯实粮食安全根基、推进农业规模化经营、大力发展农业机械化数字化、构建农村人力资源培训体系以及加快推进城乡融合发展。

Building up China's Strength in Agriculture is not only an important part of constructing a powerful socialist modernization country in an all-round way,but also an inevitable requirement for firmly following the socialist road with Chinese characteristics based on the basic national and agricultural conditions.This paper constructs a theoretical analysis framework for rural population transformation and building an agricultural power,and forecasts the total rural population and its structure in the future based on the data of the Seventh National Population Census.The research shows that the demand for agricultural labor force will be less than 60 million people by 2035.The proportion of the total rural population in China is projected to fall to 20%to 22%,and the proportion of the rural labor force aged 16-64 in the total rural population will drop to less than 50%by 2050.The transformation of the rural population will affect the supply of grain and important agricultural products,profoundly changing the traditional pattern of man-land relationships,affecting the biased path of agricultural technology progress,and accelerating progress from a large population country to a large human resource country.In the new journey of building up China's Strength in Agriculture,the government should consolidate the foundation of food security according to the changes in the total population and structure of rural areas,promote large-scale agricultural operations,vigorously develop agricultural mechanization and digitization,and build a rural human resources training system.