绿色信贷政策能否抑制重污染企业债务规模?——基于反事实分析法的政策效果评估

Can Green Credit Policies Curb the Debt of Heavily Polluting Enterprises?:Policy effect evaluation based on counter-factual analysis

以2008—2022年中国A股公司为研究样本,采用反事实分析法中的倾向得分匹配-双重差分(propensity score matching-difference-in-difterence,PSM-DID)模型,从重污染企业债务规模的角度对绿色信贷政策的实施效果进行评估,并进一步分析企业异质性的影响。结果表明,2012年《绿色信贷指引》实施后,重污染企业的债务规模得到显著抑制,政策效果明显,但存在着不平衡的现象,国有重污染企业和处于地方政府债务较低的地区的重污染企业受到的抑制更强,政策效果相对更好。最后根据结论提出启示与建议。

Taking China A-share companies from 2008 to 2022 as a research sample,the PSM-DID model in counter-factual analysis was used to evaluate the implementation effect of green credit policies from the perspective of the debt scale of heavily polluting enterprises,and further analyze the impact of enterprise heterogeneity.The results show that after the implementation of the Green Credit Guidelines in 2012,the debt scale of heavily polluting enterprises has been significantly suppressed,and the policy effect is obvious,but there is an imbalance,and the state-owned heavy polluting enterprises and heavy polluting enterprises in areas with low local authority debt are more strongly suppressed,and the policy effect is relatively better.Finally,enlightenment and suggestions are put forward according to the conclusion.