经济集聚、产业结构升级与绿色经济效率协调发展——基于京津冀与粤港澳大湾区的比较分析

A Study on the Coordinated Development of Economic Agglomeration,Industrial Structure Upgrading and Green Economy Efficiency——Based on the Comparative Analysis between Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

基于经济集聚、产业结构升级和绿色经济效率相互协调的视角,构建三元系统耦合协调评价指标,以京津冀与粤港澳大湾区作为研究对象,运用耦合协调模型、探索性数据分析和空间计量模型,探究了两大城市群的经济集聚—产业结构升级—绿色经济效率系统的耦合协调程度和空间关联效应,结果显示:第一,京津冀地区的耦合协调度呈增长趋势,但整体协调水平偏低,其耦合协调类型从濒临失调到勉强协调再到初级协调;粤港澳大湾区整体耦合协调水平较高且增长趋势变动明显,2005年为初级协调,2018年转为中级协调。第二,三系统耦合协调度在京津冀和粤港澳大湾区均呈现出正向的空间相关性和空间依赖特征。第三,对外开放程度、政府支持力度、人力资本、研发投入、经济发展水平对京津冀城市群和粤港澳大湾区的三系统协调度具有影响,但各因素影响的显著程度和方向有差异。

Based on the perspective of economic agglomeration,industrial structure upgrading,and green economic efficiency coordination,a ternary system coupling coordination evaluation index is constructed.The Beijing Tianjin Hebei and Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Greater Bay Area are taken as research objects,and the coupling coordination model,exploratory data analysis,and spatial econometric model are used to explore the coupling coordination degree and spatial correlation effect of the economic agglomeration industrial structure upgrading green economic efficiency system in the two urban agglomerations.Research has found that:Firstly,the coupling coordination degree in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region is showing an increasing trend,but the overall coordination level is relatively low,and the coupling coordination types range from near imbalance to barely coordinated and then to primary coordination.The overall level of coupling and coordination in the Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Greater Bay Area is relatively high,and the growth trend has changed significantly.In 2005,it was at the primary level of coordination,and in 2018,it became at the intermediate level of coordination.Secondly,the coupling coordination degree of the three systems shows positive spatial correlation and spatial dependence characteristics in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei and Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Greater Bay Area.Thirdly,the degree of openness to the outside world,government support,human capital,R&D investment,and economic development level have an impact on the coordination of the three systems in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei urban agglomeration and the Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Greater Bay Area,but the significance and direction of each factor's influence vary.