破解中国能源“不可能三角”——基于省域面板数据的动态QCA分析

Cracking the Energy“Trilemma”in China--Dynamic QCA Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

使用2005—2021年省域面板数据,对我国能源“安全—经济—绿色”的耦合协调发展状况进行评估,并采用动态QCA方法探索时间纵轴上“技术—组织—环境”因素对能源“安全—经济—绿色”耦合协调发展的组态效应。研究表明,我国的确存在一定的能源“不可能三角”问题,且任何单一因素都不能驱动能源“安全—经济—绿色”耦合协调发展,需要多因素的协同驱动。此外,存在三种可推动能源“安全—经济—绿色”耦合协调发展的组态模型,分别为“技术—组织—环境协同驱动”模型、“组织—环境驱动”模型和“技术—环境驱动”模型。

Based on the provincial panel data from 2005 to 2021,the paper evaluated the coupling and coordinated development status of the“security-economy-green”system in China’s energy sector,and used the dynamic QCA method to explore the configuration effect of the factors of“technology-organization-environment”on the longitudinal time axis,on energy’s coupling and coordinated development of“security-economy-green”.The research showed that,there was the energy“trilemma”in China,and any single factor couldn’t drive the coupling and coordinated development of the“security-economy-green”system in China’s energy sector.Instead,the collaboration of multiple factors could play a driving role.There were three types of configuration models to realize the coupling and coordinated development,that was,the“technology-organization-environment collaboratively driven”model,the“organization-environment driven”model and the“technology-environment driven”model.