全球膝关节骨性关节炎发病率和患病率分析与趋势预测

Analysis and Trend Prediction of Global Incidence Rate and Prevalence of Knee Osteoarthritis

目的:本研究分析1990-2019年全球膝关节骨性关节炎(KOA)发病率和患病率数据,并预测未来15年发病率和患病率变化趋势。方法:数据来源2019年GBD数据库。收集1990-2019年相关数据,采用Joinpoint回归模型分析平均年度变化百分比(AAPC),APC模型描述AAPC的长期趋势,ARIMA模型预测未来15年变化。结果:在发病率方面,2019年整体群体发病率、女性群体发病率和男性群体发病率分别为350.34/10万、407.91/10万和291.19/10万,AAPC分别以每年0.2%、0.3%和0.2%的速度增加;年龄效应均呈先上升后下降趋势,时期效应均呈上升趋势,队列效应均呈下降趋势;预测2034年整体人群发病率将达到384.38/10万,女性群体发病率将达到365.75/10万,男性群体发病率将达到387/10万;在患病率上,在2019年整体群体、女性群体和男性群体患病率分别为4375.95/10万、5161.36/10万和3510.19/10万,AAPC分别以每年0.2%、0.3%和0.2%的速度增长;年龄效应均呈先上升后缓慢下降趋势,时期效应呈上升趋势,队列效应呈下降趋势;预测2034年整体人群患病率将达到4722.24/10万,女性群体患病率将达到4909.39/10万,男性患病率将达到4499.48/10万。结论:KOA是一项重大的公共卫生挑战。整体群体、女性群体、男性群体的发病率和患病率均呈现先上升后下降的趋势。女性的发病率和患病率均高于男性;KOA发病和患病群体逐渐年轻化;发病高峰年龄为50~60岁,患病高峰年龄为60~75岁。未来15年整体人群和男性人群发病率和患病率可能会出现继续升高趋势,而女性群体则可能会出现下降趋势。

Objective This study analyzed global incidence and predicted the incidence and prevalence trends in the next 15 years.Methods The data source was 2019 GBD database.Relevant data were collected from 1990 to 2019,and the Join⁃point regression model was used to analyze the average annual percentage change(AAPC).The APC model described the long-term trend of AAPC,and ARIMA model was used to predict changes over the next 15 years.Results In terms of inci⁃dence,in 2019,the overall population incidence,female population incidence and male population incidence were 350.34/100000,407.91/100000 and 291.19/100000,respectively.AAPC increased by 0.2%,0.3%and 0.2%per year,respec⁃tively.The data source was 2019 GBD database.Relevant data were collected from 1990 to 2019,and the Joinpoint regres⁃sion model was used to analyze the average annual percentage change(AAPC).The APC model described the long-term trend of AAPC,and ARIMA model was used to predict changes over the next 15 years.It is predicted that in 2034,the o⁃verall population incidence rate will reach 384.38 per 100000,the female incidence rate will reach 365.75 per 100000 and the male incidence rate will reach 387 per 100000.In terms of prevalence,in 2019,the overall population prevalence,fe⁃male population prevalence and male population prevalence were 4375.95/100000,5161.36/100000 and 3510.19/100000,respectively.AAPC increased by 0.2%,0.3%and 0.2%per year,respectively.The age effect showed a trend of first increasing and then slowly decreasing,the period effect showed an upward trend,and the cohort effect showed a downward trend.It is predicted that in 2034,the overall population prevalence rate will reach 4722.24/100000,the female population prevalence rate will reach 4909.39/100000 and the male prevalence rate will reach 4499.48/100000.Conclusion KOA is a major public health challenge.The incidence and prevalence rates of the whole population,female population and male pop⁃ulation all showed a trend of first rising and then declining.The incidence rate and prevalence rate of female were higher than those of male.The incidence of KOA and the population affected by KOA are gradually becoming younger.The peak age of onset is 50 to 60 years old and the peak age of illness is 60 to 75 years old.In the next 15 years,the incidence and prevalence of the overall population and the male population may continue to increase,while the female population may ex⁃perience a downward trend.