限购政策能否稳定房价?——基于住房市场关注度和价格预期的视角

Can the Housing Purchase Restriction Policy Stablise House Prices——Based on the Perspective of Real Estate Market Attention and Price Expectation

本文基于中国70个大中城市二手住宅销售价格的月度面板数据,采用多期DID方法,实证检验限购政策对地区房价增长率的影响及其作用渠道。研究结果表明:(1)住房限购并未扭转房价普遍上涨的局面,但是显著降低了房价上涨幅度,与未限购的城市相比,住房限购城市房价增长率下降0.9%,并且政策对房价的调控效果具有持续性;(2)同一经济区内城市间限购政策出台具有空间关联性,区域内限购城市比例越高,本地限购的概率越大;(3)住房限购通过降低住房市场关注度和价格预期抑制房价增长;(4)一二线城市、房价水平高、市场关注度高的城市以及华北、长三角、东南沿海和中部经济区的城市住房价格增长更易受到限购政策的影响。相关结论为政府因城施策、调整改进购买引导政策、稳定市场预期、建立区域住房市场联动机制提供依据。

Taking the implementation of housing purchase restriction policy as policy shock,this paper adopts the multi-period DID method to empirically test the effect of the purchase restriction policy on housing price growth rate and its channels based on the monthly panel data of second-hand housing sales prices in 70 lar ge and medium-sized cities.Firstly,the housing purchase restriction pol-icy significantly reduces house price growth rate although it does not change the situation of house price growing.Secondly,the introduction of purchase restrictions between cities in the same economic zone is spatially correlated,and the increase in the propor tion of cities with purchase restrictions in the region will increase the probability of local purchase restrictions.Thirdly,the housing purchase restriction policy lowers house price growth rates by weakening housing market attention and reducing price expectation.Besides,the growth rates of housing price in first-and second-tier cities,cities with high housing prices,cities with high market attention and those in North China,Yangtze River Delta,southeast coastal and central economic zones are more likely to be affected by purchase restrictions.Relevant evidence of the effect of the purchase restriction policy on housing prices growth rate can provide a basis for government to improve purchase guidance policies according to practical situations,stablise market expectation and establish a coordination mechanism for regional housing markets.