2021年以来美国国会推动涉台法案的特点、动机和影响

The Characteristics,Motivations and Impact of the Taiwan-Related Bills Promoted by the U.S.Congress since 2021

2021年以来,美国国会频繁推动涉台法案立法,在军事、经济、外事等方面为中国台湾提供支持。虽然生效法案的数量并未明显增长,但总体而言,美国涉台立法活动已呈现延续性、渐变性和清晰化的特点。国会对中国可能行为的判断、立法-行政之间的复杂关系、国会内部的意见分歧,以及美国全球性战略布局都将影响法案通过与否。最终,与军事活动、经济支持相关的法案更有可能通过,一些低敏感的操作性内容也可能以行政措施等方式得到落实。为了提升美方介入中国台湾问题的“合法性”、继续推进“以台制华”、维护美国在全球的霸权地位和利益,美方将继续加大力度推动涉台法案出台。即便绝大多数议案未能成为法案乃至未能获得通过,其折射出的美国国会态度和战略转变仍值得重视,其对台海局势造成的负面影响同样值得中国警惕。

Since 2021,the U.S.Congress has frequently promoted Taiwan-related bills and provided support to Taiwan in military,economic,"foreign affairs"and other aspects.Although the number of bills has not increased significantly,overall,the U.S.Taiwan-related activities have shown the characteristics of continuity,gradual change and clarity.Factors affecting whether the bill is passed include Congress's judgment on China's possible actions,the complex relationship between legislation and administration,difference of opinions within Congress,and the U.S.global strategic layout.Finally,bills related to military activities and economic support are more likely to be passed,and some low-sensitive operational content may also be implemented through administrative measures.In order to enhance the so called"legitimacy"of the U.S.involvement in the Taiwan question,to keep promoting"Taiwan to subdue China"and to safeguard American hegemony and interests in the world,the U.S.side will continue to step up efforts in pushing for the introduction of Taiwan-related bills.Even if the vast majority of the bills fail to become laws or even to pass,the changes in attitude and strategy reflected in the United States Congress still deserve attention,and the negative impact on the situation in the Taiwan Strait is also even more alarming to China.