徐州市土地生态安全评价及预测

Evaluation and prediction of land ecological security in Xuzhou Jiangsu

土地生态安全评价是土地资源合理规划、高效利用及生态可持续发展的根本与核心。徐州市作为典型的资源枯竭型城市,生态安全问题突出,对其土地生态安全进行科学评价具有重要意义。本文旨在建立徐州市土地生态安全评价指标体系,从压力、状态、响应三个层面,采用综合赋权法对各指标进行权重计算,以更加客观公正地评价徐州市2012—2021年土地生态安全情况。根据评价结果,对徐州市2025—2030年土地生态安全发展态势进行预测。结果显示:徐州市土地生态安全的综合指数呈曲折起伏增长态势,安全状况从临界安全状态过渡为较安全形势;预测徐州市2025—2030年的土地生态安全水平将呈现出稳定上升的趋势,由较安全级转变为安全等级。通过对徐州市近10年的土地生态安全水平进行掌控,能够更好地为徐州市未来土地资源可持续利用提供参考依据。

Land ecological security evaluation is the fundamental and core of rational planning,efficient utilization and ecological sustainable development of land resources.As a typical resource-exhausted city of Jiangsu,Xuzhou has prominent problems of ecological security,so it is of great practical significance to evaluate its land ecological security scientifically.This paper aims to establish an evaluation index system of land ecological security in Xuzhou,which is constructed from three levels of pressure,state and response,and adopts the comprehensive weighting method to calculate the weight of each index,so as to evaluate the land ecological security in Xuzhou from 2012 to 2021 more objectively and fairly.According to the evaluation results,the future development situation of land ecological security in Xuzhou from 2025 to 2030 is predicted.The results show that the comprehensive index of land ecological security in Xuzhou shows a zigzagging growth trend,and the security situation changes from a critical security state to a relatively safe one.It is predicted that the land ecological security level of Xuzhou will show a steady rising trend from 2025 to 2030,and its security state will change from a relatively safe level to a safe level.By mastering the land ecological security level of Xuzhou in recent 10 years,it can provide a better reference for the sustainable development of land resources in Xuzhou in future.