住房支出压力、数字普惠金融与定居意愿——基于流动性约束视角

Housing Expenditure Pressure,Digital Inclusive Finance and Settlement Intention:From the Perspective of Liquidity Constraints

基于2014—2018年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,分析住房支出压力对流动人口定居意愿的影响,并探讨数字普惠金融在其中起到的调节作用。研究发现,住房支出压力对于流动人口定居意愿有显著的负向影响,而数字普惠金融能够有效弱化这种负向影响,其内在机制体现为家庭流动性约束。异质性分析表明,这种影响效应在受教育程度较低、40岁及以下、男性、农业户口以及省内流动人口中更为突出。进一步分析发现,对于当前在城市暂无定居意愿的流动人口而言,数字普惠金融存在明显的“挽留效应”,此外,数字普惠金融发展过程中存在着“数字鸿沟”问题。要多措并举提升流动人口住房可负担能力,提高住房的供求匹配程度,深入推动户籍制度、学区制度等配套性制度改革,进一步提升城市吸引力和宜居水平。

Based on the data of the dynamic monitoring survey of China Migrants Dynamic Survey(CMDS)from 2014 to 2018,this paper analyzes the impact of housing expenditure pressure on the floating population s settlement intention,and discusses the moderating role of digital inclusive finance.The results show that,the housing expenditure pressure has a significant negative impact on the willingness of the floating population to settle down,and the digital inclusive finance can effectively weaken this negative impact.The internal mechanism can be understood from the perspective of family mobility constraints.Heterogeneity analysis shows that this effect is more prominent among lower educational levels,those aged 40 years and below,male,agricultural household registration and provincial floating population.Further analysis shows that for the current floating population who have no intention to settle down in the city,digital inclusive finance has obvious“retention effect”.In addition,there is a“digital divide”problem in the development of digital inclusive finance.It is believed that the attractiveness and livability of cities can be further enhanced by improving the affordability of housing for migrants,improving the matching degree of supply and demand of housing products,and promoting relevant supporting institutional reforms on the household registration system and the school district system.