海外供应链中心度对出口恢复的影响研究

The Impact of Overseas Supply Chain Centrality on Export Recovery

本文以2008年金融危机时期出口急剧收缩为背景,基于2006—2014年的中国海关数据库和全球双边贸易数据,考察企业海外供应链特征对危机后出口恢复的影响。研究结果表明:海外供应链中心度较高的企业,金融危机后在出口恢复的概率和速度上表现更好,这一结论在替换主要变量、样本和计量模型后依然成立;机制分析证实,中心度较高的海外供应链能够提供相对稳定的进口投入要素,从而保障金融危机后企业生产和出口活动的顺利进行;在产品质量差异化程度较低、竞争程度较高的行业以及核心度较低的产品中,海外供应链中心度对出口恢复的促进作用更为明显;企业的海外供应链中心度越高,出口恢复的金额和数量也越多。本文为企业如何充分发挥和利用海外供应链优势,推进外贸供应链畅通和提升出口抗风险能力提供了重要启示。

Based on the backdrop of the sharp contraction in exports during the 2008 financial crisis,this paper,based on Chinese customs data from 2006 to 2014 and global bilateral trade data,investigates the influence of enterprise overseas supply chain characteristics on post-crisis export recovery.The results indicate that enterprises with higher overseas supply chain centrality are holding better probabilities and speeds of export recovery after the financial crisis.This conclusion remains consistent after replacing key variables,samples,and measurement models.Mechanism analysis confirms that overseas supply chain centrality can provide relatively stable input factors for imports,thereby ensuring the smooth progress of enterprise production and export activities after the financial crisis.In industries with lower product quality differentiation,higher competition levels,and lower product centrality,the promoting effect of overseas supply chain centrality on export recovery is more pronounced.Moreover,the higher the overseas supply chain centrality of enterprises,the greater the amount and volume of export recovery.This paper provides crucial insights into how enterprises fully leverage and utilize the advantages of everseas supply chains,advancing the smoothness of foreign trade supply chains and enhancing export resilience.