城市进口扩张对中国个体婚姻决策的影响

The Influence of Urban Import Expansion on Individual Marriage Decisions in China

利用中国家庭收入调查数据,本文详细考察了城市进口扩张对个体婚姻决策的影响。结果表明城市进口扩张显著降低了个体结婚的发生比,该结果在改变被解释变量和解释变量的测度方式、变换估计样本、改变估计方法后仍然保持稳健。分样本检验的结果表明,进口扩张会促使高就业率的、东部地区的个体,女性、初婚年龄段、高学历、高收入和非农个体更大程度地降低结婚几率、减少结婚行为;从经济发展水平较高的国家进口、进口高质量产品会对个体婚姻表现产生更大的负向影响。机制分析的结果证实了城市进口扩张有效提高了女性就业和收入水平、促进了个体受教育水平提升,并改变了个体的婚姻观念,使得对婚姻的需求下降,从而造成结婚率的下降。

Using data from Chinese Household Income Project,this paper extensively examines the impact of urban import expansion on individual marriage decisions.The results indicate that urban import expansion significantly decreases the likelihood of individuals getting married.This finding remains robust after altering measurement methods of explanatory and explained variables,changing estimation samples,and modifying estimation methods.Sub-sample tests reveal that import expansion prompts individuals with high employment rates in eastern regions,females,within first marriage age,highly educated individuals,high-income earners,and non-agricultural workers to decrease their likelihood and frequency of marriage.Importing from countries with higher economic development and importing high-quality products also exerts a more significantly negative impact on individual marriage behavior.Mechanism analysis confirms that urban import expansion effectively increases female employment and income levels,promotes individual educational attainment,and alters individual perspectives on marriage,reducing the demand for marriage and consequently lowering marriage rates.