基于SD模型黑龙江省农业水足迹可持续性评价

Evaluation of agricultural water footprint sustainability based on SD model in Heilongjiang Province

利用系统动力学方法构建农业水足迹可持续性SD模型,模拟2000~2050年黑龙江省农业水足迹演变规律,从生态安全和经济效益角度评价其可持续性,最终综合评价农业水足迹可持续性。结果表明,黑龙江省农业水足迹在2020年达到最高值1152.98亿m^(3),此后将长期保持较高值,农业水资源匮乏指数在未来30年内将维持在101%;黑龙江省农业水足迹经济效益逐年提高,2050年达到6.14元·m_(-3),农业水足迹人口密度仅有3.38人·万t^(-1);农业水足迹可持续性指标呈正负交叉状态,表明黑龙江省农业水足迹可持续能力较弱;历史年内黑龙江省农业水足迹可持续水平不断恶化,虽在未来年内逐步好转,但远低于初期水平。

The SD model of agricultural water footprint sustainability was constructed by system dynamics method to simulate the evolution law of agricultural water footprint in Heilongjiang Province from 2000 to 2050,and its sustainability was evaluated from the perspective of ecological security and economic benefits.Finally,the comprehensive evaluation of agricultural water footprint sustainability was carried out.The results showed that the agricultural water footprint of Heilongjiang Province reached the highest value of 115.298 billion m^(3)in 2020,and would remain high for a long time thereafter,and the agricultural water scarcity index would remain at 101%in the next 30 years;the economic benefit of agricultural water footprint in Heilongjiang Province increased year by year,reaching 6.14 yuan·m^(-3)in 2050,and the population density of 10000 tons of agricultural water footprint in the year was only 3.38 per person·10000 t^(-1);the sustainability index of agricultural water footprint showed a positive and negative cross state,indicating that the sustainability ability of agricultural water footprint in Heilongjiang Province was weak;the sustainable level of agricultural water footprint in Heilongjiang Province continued to deteriorate during the historical years,and although it would gradually increase in the coming years,it would be far lower than the initial level.