输电线路覆冰情势与气象要素关联模型研究

Association Model for Icing Situation with Meteorological Factors for Transmission Line

及时掌握输电线路覆冰增长、消落情势,提前开展线路除冰决策分析,可避免因覆冰过厚导致的倒塔断线事故。针对无实时覆冰厚度观测数据区域,文中在分析覆冰情势与气象要素关联性的基础上,构建基于Apriori算法的输电线路覆冰增长、消落情势与微地形气象数据的强关联规则挖掘模型,提出覆冰增长、消落情势预警方法。以南方某省级电网输电线路实例运行数据为例,验证了所提模型预警精度,实用性强,有力支撑输电线路防冻融冰决策分析。

Timely comprehension of the growth and decline of transmission line icing,and conducting decision analy-sis of line de icing in advance,which can avoid tower collapse and disconnection accidents caused by excessive icing.For areas without real-time icing thickness observation data,this article analyzes the correlation between icing condi-tions and meteorological factors,and constructs a strong association rule mining model based on the Apriori algorithm for transmission line icing growth,dissipation,and micro terrain meteorological data.A warning method for icing growth and dissipation is proposed.Taking the operation data of a provincial power grid transmission line in southern China as an example,the proposed model is verified to be accurate and practical,which strongly supports the deci-sion analysis of transmission line anti-freezing and thawing.