住房限购政策对房价影响分析——以武汉城市圈为例

Analysis of the Impact of Housing Purchase Restriction Policy on Housing Price——A Case of Wuhan City Circle

限购政策近年来已成为政府宏观调控房价的重要政策工具之一,研究限购政策对房价的影响,对促进住宅市场持续健康发展具有现实意义。基于武汉城市圈2010-2019年月度数据,通过面板向量自回归模型和脉冲响应,研究住房限购政策对房价的影响。研究表明,住房限购政策的出台在短期内对抑制房地产价格上涨起到了一定的作用,但其抑制效果随着时间的推移逐渐衰弱;住房限购政策具有溢出效应,限购政策下核心城市房价变动会导致其他城市房价的波动。

In recent years,the purchase restriction policy has become one of the important policy tools of the government’s macro-control of housing prices.It is of practical significance to study the impact of the purchase restriction policy on the housing prices to promote the sustainable and healthy development of the housing market.Based on the monthly data of Wuhan City Circle from 2010 to 2019,this paper studies the impact of housing purchase restriction policy on housing prices through Panel Vector Autoregression and Impulse Response.The results shows that the introduction of the housing purchase restriction policy has played a certain role in restraining the rise of real estate price in the short term,but its inhibitory effect gradually weakens over time.The housing purchase restriction policy has spillover effect,and the changes of housing prices in core cities under the purchase restriction policy will lead to the fluctuation of housing prices in other cities.