江苏省实现高比例光伏发电发展路径研究

Investigation into Jiangsu Province’s Development Path to Achieve a High Solar Power Generation Percentage

加快光伏发电等可再生能源发展是实现江苏省“碳达峰”“碳中和”的有力途径。在对江苏省光伏发电资源禀赋、发展水平和存在问题等情况进行分析的基础上,综合考虑能源、电力等发展情况,建立多区域、多维度的江苏省光伏发电发展估算模型,采取目标回溯及趋势外推等多种方法相结合,对江苏省“十四五”及中长期光伏发电发展进行情景分析,科学测算江苏省光伏发电发展规模。最后,提出了江苏省实现高比例光伏发电发展的路径及相关政策建议。

A potent strategy for achieving“carbon peak”and“carbon neutrality”in Jiangsu Province is to accelerate the development of renewable energy sources like photovoltaic power generation.This study examines Jiangsu Province’s resource endowment,development stage,and current issues related to photovoltaic power generation.After adopting a thorough approach to the study of energy,electricity,and related developments,it establishes a multi-regional and multi-dimensional model for estimating the development of photovoltaic power generation in Jiangsu Province.This model is based on an analysis of the resource endowment,development level,and current issues related to solar power generation in the province.This paper also combines several techniques,such as target backtracking and trend extrapolation,to perform scenario analysis on the province’s“14th Five-Year Plan”and medium-and long-term photovoltaic power generation development.Additionally,the level of development of photovoltaic power generation in Jiangsu Province is ascertained through scientific computations.Finally,a strategy and associated policy recommendations are made in order to help Jiangsu Province achieve a high solar power generation percentage.