土地利用时空变化的关键驱动因子及其影响趋势——以武威市为例

The key driving factors of land use patio-temporal change and its influence trend--A case study of Wuwei

基于武威市1990年、2000年、2010年、2021年四期LandsatTM/OLI遥感影像数据,利用土地利用动态变化指数、土地利用转移矩阵、重心迁移模型与主成分综合得分模型等方法,并结合气象数据和社会经济统计数据对武威市土地利用时空变化驱动因子进行了定量分析.结果表明:近32a来,武威市草地、耕地、建设用地和水域面积呈增加趋势,未利用地与林地面积呈减少趋势,动态度介于2.56%~-0.13%之间,林地与未利用地主要转为草地和耕地;研究区土地利用变化空间差异明显,水域重心迁移距离最大,耕地次之,未利用地最小;人类活动与气候变化是影响武威市土地利用变化的关键因子,人类活动的贡献率56.35%,远大于43.65%的气候变化贡献率,且二者的影响均呈上升趋势,且以人类活动的影响更大.未来,应该充分发挥人类的积极作用,促进人地协调发展.

Based on the Landsat TM/OLI remote sensing image data of Wuwei City in 1990,2000,2010 and 2021,this paper used the methods of land use dynamic change index,land use transfer matrix,center of gravity migration model and principal component comprehensive score model,combined with meteorological data and socio-economic statistical data,the spatio-temporal driving factors of land use change in Wuwei City were quantitatively analysed.The results show that:In the past 32 years,the area of Grassland,Cropland,Impervious and Water in Wuwei City showed an increasing trend,while the area of Barren and Forest showed a decreasing trend,and the dynamic rate ranged from 2.56%to-0.13%.Forest and Barren were mainly converted to Grassland and Cropland;The spatial difference of land use change in the study area was obvious.The center of gravity migration distance of Water was the largest,followed by Cropland and Barren was the least;Human activities and climate change were the key factors affecting land use change in Wuwei City.The contribution rate of human activities was 56.35%,which was much higher than that of climate change in 43.65%,and the impacts of both showed an upward trend,and the influence trend of human activities was greater than that of climate change.In the future,we should give full play to the positive role of human beings,so as to promote the coordinated development of human and land.