四川省喜马拉雅旱獭生境分析及适生区预测

Habitant analysis and prediction of suitable habitants of Himalayan Marmots in Sichuan Province,China

目的分析四川省喜马拉雅旱獭的生境特征和预测其适生区。方法采用描述性流行病学方法分析旱獭洞的生境特征、旱獭洞密度与生境因子之间关系,并采用MaxEnt生态位模型预测喜马拉雅旱獭洞潜在空间分布。结果多数旱獭洞监测点生境特征具有:高程为3700~4000 m,坡度较小,土地覆盖为耕地,均一化植被指数较高,土壤类型为薄层土,温暖,降雨量丰沛。但过高的高程、均一化植被指数、温度和降雨量不利于旱獭洞的分布。影响喜马拉雅旱獭洞潜在分布的主要环境因子为年降雨量、坡度、土壤类型和最暖月最高温度。年降雨量为540.0~620.0 mm,坡度为0.0°~4.0°,土壤类型为薄层土,最暖月最高温度为16.0℃~21.0℃,是喜马拉雅旱獭洞潜在分布的适宜条件。MaxEnt模型测试AUC值为0.8919,模型效果较佳,其中高适生区面积为601 km^(2)(3.2%)。结论年降雨量、坡度、土壤类型和最暖月最高温度是影响喜马拉雅旱獭空间分布的主要环境因素。应加强对旱獭及主要环境影响因子的监测,并对居民和游客进行充分的健康教育,防范鼠疫感染和流行。

Objective To analyze the habitat characteristics of Himalayan Marmots in Sichuan Province,China,and predict their suitable habitats.Methods The descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the habitat characteristics of Marmot caves and the relationship between the density of Marmot caves and habitat factors.A MaxEnt-based ecological niche model was used to predict the potential spatial distribution of Himalayan Marmot caves.Results The habitat characteristics of most Marmot caves are as follows:an elevation of 3700~4000 m,a small slope,the land cover being cultivated,a relatively high normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI),the soil type being leptosols,warm temperature,and abundant precipitation.However,too high elevation,NDVI,temperature,and precipitation were not conducive to the distribution of Marmot caves.The main environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of Himalayan Marmot caves were annual precipitation,slope,soil type,and the maximum temperature of the warmest month.The suitable conditions for potential distribution of Himalayan Marmot caves were:annual precipitation,540.0~620.0 mm;slope,0.0°~4.0°;soil type,leptosols;and the maximum temperature of the warmest month,16.0°~21.0℃.The area under the curve(AUC)of MaxEnt prediction was 0.8919,indicating that the model showed good performance,and the highly suitable area was 601 km^(2)(3.2%).Conclusion The annual precipitation,slope,soil type,and the maximum temperature of the warmest month are the main environmental factors affecting the spatial distribution of Himalayan Marmots.Surveillance of Marmots and major environmental impact factors should be strengthened,and adequate health education should be provided for residents and tourists,in order to prevent plague infection and outbreaks.