成都市养老机构时空演变及影响因素

Spatial-temporal evolution and influencing factors of elderly care institutions in Chengdu City

近年来,随着人口老龄化、高龄化、空巢化的加速发展和家庭养老功能弱化,机构养老服务在成都市得到快速发展.基于1950—2020年成都市养老机构数据,综合应用最邻近指数、核密度分析、空间自相关分析等空间分析方法和文献分析方法,探讨了成都市养老机构的发展历程、空间演变过程及影响因素.结果表明:(1)成都市养老机构的发展在时间上分为萌芽期(1950—1978)、探索阶段(1979—1999)、起飞阶段(2000—2018)、高质量发展阶段(2019—2020)四个阶段,并依次表现出孤立分布、散点分布和圈层分布的地域空间过程;(2)养老院、老年公寓和护理院从中心城区向郊区梯次减少,敬老院、福利院和疗养院反之,从中心城区向郊区梯次增多,各类型养老机构均有不同程度的空间聚集和大小不等的聚集核心,其中第一圈层外缘及第二圈层的空间聚集最为显著;(3)老年人口分布、经济发展、交通条件、医疗资源配套设施和政策因素是养老机构空间分异的主要影响因素.

Population aging,the elderly empty-nesters phenomenon and the weakening of family support of the elderly in recent years have accelerated the rapid growth of institutional elderly care services in Chengdu.Based on the data of elderly care institutions in Chengdu from 1950 to 2020,the development process,through the combined use of spatial analysis and literature analysis methods like the nearest neighbor index,kernel density analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis,the paper probes into the spatial evolution process and influencing factors of elderly care institutions in Chengdu.The results show that:(1)the development of elderly care institutions in Chengdu is divided into four stages in time line:embryonic stage(1950-1960),exploratory stage(1961-1999),take-off stage(2000-2018)and high-quality development stage(2019-2020),and takes on the regional and spatial process of isolated distribution,scattered distribution and circular distribution in turn;(2)Nursing homes,apartments for the elderly and nursing houses are increasingly scarcely found from the central urban area to the suburbs,while nursing homes,welfare homes and sanatoriums on the contrary,increase in number from the central urban area to the suburbs.All types of elderly care institutions have different degrees of spatial aggregation and form aggregation cores of different sizes,of which the spatial aggregation of the outer edge of the first circle and the second circle are the most significant in terms of spatial aggregation;(3)The elderly population distribution,economic development,traffic conditions,medical resources,supporting facilities and policy factors are the major influencing factors of the spatial differentiation of elderly care institutions.