气候变化风险对区域金融稳定的影响研究

The Impact of Climate Change Risk on Regional Financial Stability

气候变化是引发经济金融系统震荡波动的重要因素。选取2011—2021年我国31个省级行政区样本分析了气候变化与区域金融稳定之间的关系,主要得出以下结论:首先,气候变化会对区域金融稳定产生显著的系统性冲击,作用时滞为3年。其次,气候变化影响区域金融稳定存在明显异质性,区域经济发展基础薄弱及气候变化强度高的区域,其金融稳定受到气候变化负面冲击的效应更显著。最后,气候变化可通过降低家庭收入水平、减少企业产出规模及提升金融部门不良资产规模三种机制影响区域金融稳定。并从提升金融机构及监管部门应对气候风险的管理意识、重视气候变化引致居民收入及企业产出下降问题、加快气候风险缓释工具创新力度三个方面提出应对气候变化风险的政策建议。

Climate change is an important factor causing economic and financial system turbulence.Based on the 2011 to 2021,this paper analyzes the relationship between climate change and regional financial stability in 31 provinces of our country,climate change will have a significant systemic impact on regional financial stability with a time lag of 3 years.Secondly,there is obvious heterogeneity in the impact of climate change on regional financial stability.The financial stability of regions with weak economic development foundation and high climate change intensity is more significantly affected by the negative impact of climate change.Finally,climate change can affect regional financial stability through three mechanisms:reducing household income,reducing the scale of corporate output,and increasing the scale of non-performing assets in the financial sector.This paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to deal with climate change risk from three aspects:enhancing the management awareness of financial institutions and regulatory authorities to deal with climate risk,paying attention to the problem of the reduction of residents'income and enterprises'output caused by climate change,and accelerating the innovation of climate risk mitigation tools.