精准扶贫能减少刑事犯罪吗?——来自裁判文书数据的经验证据

Can Targeted Poverty Alleviation Reduce Criminal Offences?Empirical Evidence from China Judgments Online Data

精准扶贫是我国全面决胜脱贫攻坚的重要政策,当前文献集中关注扶贫政策的经济影响,而忽略了其社会效果。本文基于中国裁判文书数据,使用双重差分法研究发现精准扶贫政策实施后,国家级贫困县刑事案件数和刑事犯罪人数的年增长减速20%以上。精准扶贫促进贫困县经济增长是减少刑事犯罪增长的主要渠道,就业改善在精准扶贫降低犯罪的影响中也发挥着一定作用。本文揭示了我国第一个百年奋斗背景下扶贫与维护社会治安的关系,为实现第二个百年的平安中国助力。

Targeted Poverty Alleviation(TPA)is an important leverage for China to overcome poverty.While its economic effects are well studied,less is known about the social impact of TPA.Based on trial documents data from the China Judgments Online,we use DID method and find the growth rate of criminal offenses reduced by over 20%after the implementation of TPA.The income growth effect from TPA is the primary mechanism for suppressing criminal crimes.Improved employment plays a role as well.Our work not only reveals the relationship between TPA and a more secure society with fewer criminal offenses in the background of completing the first Centenary Goal,but also sheds light on how to fulfil the Peaceful China Initiative in the second Centenary Goal.