中国体育彩票销售增长驱动因素贡献度的定量研究——基于LMDI法

A Quantitative Study of Contribution of Driving Factors to the Growth of Sports Lottery Sales in China-Leveraging the LMDI Method

使用对数平均迪氏指数(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index,LMDI)法,根据中国经济和彩票业实际情况,对LMDI法加以适当调整,并结合对各级各地体育彩票机构的调研访谈,以月度时频分析人口、经济、彩票行业和机构等驱动因素对全国(不包括港澳台地区)总体以及各省份在各时期体育彩票销售增长的贡献度,考察“彩票监管审慎政策发布”和“世界杯举办”等事件对于体育彩票销售的影响,并与中国福利彩票相应指标进行对比。研究表明,中国体育彩票销售增长3项最主要动因依次为国家层面经济因素、行业因素和机构因素;地方层面机构因素有一定的边际性作用,但未得到充分释放,人口数量下降对彩票销售的负面冲击已在部分省份显现。两项彩票审慎监管政策初步实现了制订初衷,但亦有负面问题;世界杯举办期间,在体育彩票机构努力和监管部门支持下,体育彩票销售大幅增长。体育彩票与福利彩票此前长期的互补关系近期与竞争关系相抵消。基于此,建议国家体彩管理中心强化全局引领作用,地方体彩管理中心有效发挥主观能动效应,且体育彩票相关机构应积极与监管部门实现良性互动,与福利彩票协调好合作关系。

Employing the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)method with adjustments tailored to the Chinese economic and lottery landscape,this study integrates research interviews with sports lottery institutions across various levels and regions.Conducting a monthly and temporal analysis,it investigates the demographic,economic,lottery industry,and institutional driving factors impacting the overall national(excluding Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan)and provincial contributions to sports lottery sales growth during different periods.The study explores the influence of events such as“prudent policy issuance on lottery regulation”and“World Cup hosting”on sports lottery sales,draws comparisons with corresponding indicators from the China Welfare Lottery.Findings reveal that the primary drivers of China’s sports lottery sales growth are,in sequence,national-level economic factors,industry dynamics,and institutional influences.Local-level institutional factors play a marginal role,with the negative impact of declining population on lottery sales evident in certain provinces.The two lottery prudent regulatory policies have initially achieved their intended purpose but raised some negative issues.During the World Cup period,concerted efforts from sports lottery institutions and support from regulatory authorities led to a substantial increase in sports lottery sales.The traditional complementary relationship between sports lottery and welfare lottery has recently shifted towards a rather competitive dynamic.Based on these insights,recommendations include the strengthening of the National Sports Lottery Management Center’s overall leadership role,the effective utilization of subjective initiative by local sports lottery management centers,proactive engagement between sports lottery-related institutions and regulatory authorities,and a mutually beneficial relationship between sports lottery and welfare lottery.