中央银行沟通对金融市场的影响:基于文献研究角度的分析

The Impact of Central Bank Communication on Financial Markets:An Analysis from the Perspective of Literature Research

探索中央银行沟通对金融市场的影响,是贯彻落实党的二十大提出的“建设现代中央银行制度”“强化金融稳定保障体系”的题中应有之义。现有研究发现,中央银行沟通对货币、债券、外汇、股票等金融市场产生影响,但其影响会因中央银行沟通量化方法的不同、面临市场和政策环境的不同以及中央银行沟通的内容和类型不同而存在差异。未来,需要围绕接中国地气的探索、中央银行沟通量化方法的科学性、中央银行沟通与传统货币政策工具影响金融市场的比较、中央银行沟通和金融市场之间的非线性关系等问题开展进一步研究。据此,本文提出建立有中国特色的中央银行与金融市场沟通政策框架、重视中央银行沟通对金融市场的不同影响、完善中央银行与金融市场的沟通渠道、加强协同配合以稳定金融市场、注重发挥前瞻性指引对金融市场的作用、加强前瞻性研究以规避消极影响等六项建议,以有效发挥中央银行沟通对金融市场的积极作用。

Exploring the impact of central bank communication on financial markets is of great significance in implementing the directives of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,which emphasizes the"construction of a modern central banking system"and the"strengthening of the financial stability guarantee system".Existing research has found that central bank communication affects various financial markets such as currency,bonds,foreign exchange,and stocks.However,the extent of this impact varies due to differences in the quantification methods of central bank communication,diverse market and policy environments,as well as variations in the content and types of central bank communication.In the future,further research is needed to explore issues related to adapting to the unique characteristics of China,the scientific quantification methods of central bank communication,a comparative analysis of the impact of central bank communication and traditional monetary policy tools on financial markets,and the nonlinear relationship between central bank communication and financial markets.Based on these considerations,this paper proposes six recommendations to effectively leverage the positive role of central bank communication in financial markets.These recommendations include establishing a communication policy framework tailored to China's characteristics,recognizing the diverse impacts of central bank communication on financial markets,enhancing communication channels between central banks and financial markets,strengthening collaborative efforts to stabilize financial markets,emphasizing the forward guidance,role in financial markets,and conducting forward-looking research to mitigate negative impacts.