“双循环”视角下生态消耗、福利水平与环境污染的互动机制研究

INTERACTION AMONG ECOLOGICAL CONSUMPTION,WELFARE LEVEL AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION UNDER PERSPECTIVE OF“DUAL CIRCULATION”

加快我国高耗能、高污染产业转型升级,从需求侧保障和改善人类福祉,对于实现向外提升供给能力、对内满足消费需求的“双循环”目标,具有重要现实意义。实证考察了生态消耗、福利水平与环境污染之间的动态关系,以此来探索推动高耗能高污染产业转型、人类福祉改善的有效途径。基于2005-2019年省级面板数据,展开我国生态消耗、福利水平与环境污染的测算及分析,并运用面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,研究三者之间的动态关系及互动机制。结果表明:1)2019年福利水平居前三的省份为北京、上海和天津,居后三的为西藏、甘肃和青海;“福利高-消耗低”“福利高-污染低”省份多位于东部,“福利低-消耗高”“福利低-污染高”省份多位于西部;历年来福利水平大体呈东部-东北-中部-西部由高到低的走势;2)福利水平和生态消耗之间在短期和长期均呈现“高福利低消耗”的正反馈模式;生态消耗与环境污染之间短期内呈现“低消耗低污染”的绿色生产模式,长期来看不稳定;3)福利水平改善是维持“高福利低消耗”正反馈模式和“低消耗低污染”绿色生产模式的关键。据此,提出加快推动高耗能高污染产业转型升级、改善人类福祉的建议。

Speeding up transforming and upgrading China's highly-energy-consuming,highly-polluting industries to improve and guarantee human's welfare from demand side is of significance to increase supply capacity externally and to meet internal consumption,as“dual circulation”goal.This paper uses their interaction among ecological consumption,welfare level and environmental pollution to explore the effective approaches to transformation of highly-energy-consuming,highly-polluting industries and to human's welfare.In light of 2005 to 2019 provincial panel data,this paper estimates China's ecological consumption,welfare level and environmental pollution,and applies PVAR model to study their interaction.In 2019,top three in welfare level are Beijing,Shanghai and Tianjin,with Tibet,Gansu and Qinghai at the bottom.“high-welfare-low-consumption”and“high-welfare-low-pollution”are most located in eastern,“low-welfare-high-consumption”and“low-welfare-high-pollution”are most in western.Historical welfare levels generally show a high to low trend from eastern,northeastern,central to western.A positive response model of“high-welfare-low-consumption”exists between welfare level and ecological consumption both in a short and long term.A green production model of“low-consumption-low-pollution”between ecological consumption and environmental pollution in a short term is not solid in a long term.Improving welfare level is key to maintain positive response mode of“high-welfare-low-consumption”and green production mode of“low-consumption-low-pollution”.This paper presents suggestions on advancing transforming/upgrading China's highly-energy-consuming and highly-polluting industries.